6/26/2024 Story Today I share a short form video summary of my views on inflation and the employment market as we all await the data for May PCE inflation on Friday. Video: Inflation at target, unemployment rate up, savings rate down, real disposable income growth down, GDP growth down. Transcript Ophir Gottlieb (00:00): There have been a lot of people …
Today we received retail sales data for the month of May and the number came in at 0.1% versus estimates of 0.2% and -0.2% in the prior month. The probability of a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in Sep FOMC meeting has risen on weaker than expected retail sales, lower CPI, Core CPI, PPI, Core PPI, …
Lede Yesterday we wrote CPI Cools Faster than Estimates; Time to Cut Rates. We echo that sentiment today with yet more data. Today we received the Producer Price Index (PPI) which is also known as “Wholesaler Inflation,” as opposed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that we received yesterday, and much like CPI, PPI came in below estimates. • PPI …
Lede Disinflation has returned. Core CPI YoY is the lowest it has been since April 2021. Core CPI MoM is the lowest since August 2021. The Fed will deliver a decision today, we will receive a new dot plot (Fed projections for inflation, GDP, and the labor market) and Chairman Powell will hold a press …
CPI Cools Faster than Estimates; Time to Cut Rates Read More »
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Preface Today we received the non farm payrolls (NFP) report for May. (i) Non farm payrolls beat estimates (ii) Average hourly earnings came in hotter than estimates (iii) The 12-month payroll index has grown 5.4% YoY, which is inline with the 2018 cycle and versus 6%-6.5% last year. (iv) Prime age labor force participation is …
U.S. Exceptionalism as Seen in Employment; What Now? Read More »
Lede Inflation came in a bit softer than expectations while personal spending and real disposable income came in soft as well. The Fed is likely headed for a rate cut this Fall. This all comes after our prior note on May 15th which forecasted much of this data today: CPI in line; Drops for first …
Lede Today we received the heavily followed CPI inflation report and the numbers were in line, if not below, estimates for the first time in several months. This is not the measure that is the Fed’s preferred measure, but it is the measure that gets the headlines. We also received the monthly retail sales number …
CPI in line; Drops for first time in 2024; Consumer weakening Read More »
Lede The non-farm payroll (NFP) report today was pretty close to ideal – a respectable addition of 175,000 jobs and a robust monthly average of around 250,000 jobs, especially noteworthy following strong prior months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slightly increased to 3.9% but has now tied the longest streak ever of unemployment below 4% (1960s) in the …
Jobs Report Stellar – Stagflation is Argument Falling Flat Read More »
Preface Today we received the Fed’s preferred inflation measure index, PCE and Core PCE and the numbers were “less bad” than they could have been given yesterday’s Q1 data dump. We had a hint that there would be hotter than expected inflation today when we received the quarterly data for Core PCE yesterday. However, …