Introduction to Trading: Your Path to Success
Today, we are offering a comprehensive guide that serves as your personal roadmap to trading success. Through this series of videos, we aim to arm you with the critical qualities and insights every trader must embody and understand to thrive in the fast-paced trading environment. Our CEO, Ophir Gottlieb, walks through what makes a successful trader: Process, Patience, and Effort.
Building a Solid Foundation
At the core of any successful trading journey is a robust plan. But what does it take to develop a strategy that withstands the market’s volatility?
Trading is not just about making quick decisions; it’s about making informed ones. By fostering these qualities, you position yourself to navigate through the markets more effectively.
Mastering the Art of Trading
Trading requires blending analytical skills with an understanding of market fluctuations. We simplify these complexities, focusing on the long-term perspective and risk management strategies essential for anyone looking to secure their place in the trading world. Furthermore, we explore the different types of trades and provide a primer on the essential knowledge every trader should have before even thinking about leveraging trading software.
At Capital Market Laboratories®, we use a proprietary algorithm to compute a specific type of skew and kurtosis such that it has proven, using data from the past as a map to the future, to reflect stocks with a higher likelihood to outperform or underperform.
Leveraging Technology for Trading Success
In today’s digital age, technology plays a pivotal role in trading. This guide introduces you to TradeMachine, a tool that can significantly enhance your trading strategy. However, technology alone is not enough. We emphasize the effort required to harness the power of such tools effectively, ensuring you not only become proficient in their use but also the market dynamics.
Conclusion: Embarking on Your Trading Journey
Understanding the fundamentals of trading is just the beginning of your journey to becoming a successful trader. With this three-part guide, we aim to equip you with the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate the complexities of the trading world confidently. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to refine your approach, remember that success in trading comes from a combination of informed strategies, patience, and the right technological tools.
Join us as we guide you through the essentials, helping you evolve from a novice to a seasoned trader capable of making strategic decisions that pave the way for long-term success. Welcome to your trading journey — let’s embark on this path together.
Transcripts:
Video 1:
Ophir Gottlieb (00:00):
What makes a successful trader? The goal is that no matter what happens when you walk away from
this web, whether or not you become a trade machine member, that you’ve learned something that
makes you a better trader no matter what makes a successful trader and the steps that are needed.
(00:13):
I will show you a little bit of the sizzle before the rest of the presentation. Here is just a window into how
trade machine looks and what’s going on when it’s going through back tests, applying its AI and showing
winners. This is through the entire Nasdaq 100 ticker by ticker over three years. This isn’t about one
stock, that one time, that one day. This is about a hundred stocks over three years, over 500 times, and
then returns. Alright, let’s get started.
(00:38):
To be a successful trader, you need to focus on the long arc of a career. Not like what happened
Thursday, right? Not what happened on Monday, not what happened last week. Last quarter, not even
last year. I’m talking about the long arc of a career, years, even decades, okay? It’s a different
perspective than how did my p and l go on Monday or Thursday? That’s not what the long guard of a
career is. That’s how you give money away to the market and you need three things. The first is process,
which in finance we call a plan and trade machine is built for this. It’s exceptionally good. So what is a
process? Great word. What is that? Well, it’s what to trade, when to open it and when to close it. And if
you think about that, what I just said, what to trade, when to open it, when to close it, you could be
thinking, wait a second, that’s the only thing I need to be a successful trader, right?
(01:34):
Isn’t that enough? If I knew what to trade, when to trade it and when to close it, doesn’t that make me a
successful trader? No, because we’re human. If we were robots, yes, but as far as I know, I’m only
speaking to humans. I’m a human. And so unfortunately a process isn’t good enough. You cannot be a
successful trader for the long arc of your career without a proper process or plan. It’s necessary but not
sufficient. So the second thing you’re going to need since you are human is patience. And this is going to
be easier for some people than others. Some people are naturally patient. You know who you are. Some
people are naturally impatient. You know who you are. I am naturally impatient. This was one of the
hardest things for me through my 25 plus year career to overcome to become a successful trader.
(02:21):
So this was a big one for me. For other people, it might not be know thyself and the patience is in your
plan. So in that process part, right? That first part, but it’s also in yourself. Honor yourself, respect
yourself. It’s not just the plan. It’s having patience in yourself and know thyself. Are you a patient
person? If you’re not a patient person, can you have patience in the process? Because if you cannot,
that’s okay. It’s not a character flaw, it’s just a character preference. Some people like skydiving, some
people don’t. It’s not a character flaw one way or the other. Just know your preferences. If you don’t
think you can have patience in yourself to build this process, then don’t do it. There’s other fabulous
things you can do with your life, with your friends, with your family, with your loved ones. So this takes
some honesty with yourself.
(03:10):
Can you form patience or are you patient? Just be honest with yourself. And the last part that’s needed
to be successful trader is the one that makes people a little bit uncomfortable, but I promised you that I
was going to deliver you value pretty quickly and totally irrespective of trade machine. And this is where
this bullet point comes in. The truth of the matter is process and patience aren’t enough. It’s going to
take effort. It’s just going to take effort. There’s a difference between people who like the idea of
something and people who want to do it. So I like the idea of running a marathon. I don’t want to run a
marathon Liking the idea. If you like the idea of things, if you daydream about it a little bit, but you don’t
do anything to pursue that daydream, and that’s okay. If we’re not daydreaming and having happy
thoughts, then why be alive?
(04:01):
That’s okay. Just understand that that’s not what it takes to be a successful trader. You have to actually
want it. And you know that you want something by your actions because you’ve daydreamed about it a
little bit and now you’re taking actual actions, explicit actions to pursue that daydream. So there’s two
parts about effort. I’m going to give you the bad news first and the good news second. The first part
about effort. I’m just going to be honest with you, it will probably be harder than you think to become a
successful trader. I’m just letting you know. If you’re hoping for a webinar that says it’s easy to become a
successful trader, this isn’t it. And if you see such a webinar run screaming, they’re lying to you. Okay?
That’s just not true. Okay? That’s the bad part of effort. But there is a good part of effort since it will
probably be harder than you think it will be, it’s probably going to be more satisfying than you think it
will be too.
(04:53):
And that’s just the nature of being a human. When we have to try really hard and it takes a great deal of
effort and patience as we follow our plan, it’s actually far more satisfying than if we didn’t require
patience or effort to follow our plan. This is what it takes to be a successful trader. It’s for you to decide
if you want to do it. And again, it’s not a character flaw if you don’t. It’s simply a preference. I don’t like
jumping out of airplanes. One of my best friends loves skydiving. Not a character flaw. It’s a preference.
Know thyself, honor yourself. Do not go down this path unless this sounds like it’s something you want
to do because unfortunately this endeavor, trying to be a successful trader is going to cost you money.
And if you don’t really want to put it in the effort, it’s going to cost you dearly and it’s not worth losing
money if you don’t really want it.
(05:44):
It’s really not and it’s not a character flaw. Know yourself, love yourself, honor yourself. This is the truth.
No matter what you see on YouTube in the videos about how easy it is to be an option trader, it isn’t.
They’re wrong. I’m right, they’re wrong. And the truth of the matter is somewhere deep inside, I’m right
too. When you see those videos which say it’s easy to be a successful trader, that’s not true. It’s not
true, isn’t a magical machine that prints you money and you get to go lay on the beach and make
millions of dollars. You just know it isn’t true. There’s something inside you that knows it’s true. Listen to
that voice. It’s telling you the truth. It’s your conscience, it’s your intellect. What your intellect has been
screaming is that it’s not easy, and I’m here to formalize that for you.
(06:31):
It’s not easy because it takes a process, patience and effort. All three, that’s the long arc of a career.
Okay? Now remember this for a second. We’re almost done with the slideshow and we’re going to get
to trade machine. Alright? So what do I mean by effort? It’s one thing to say it’s going to be harder than
you think it will be, but it will be more satisfying than you think it will be when you overcome it. I’m still
being kind of vague about the word effort. It starts with the idea of a portfolio of trades. Okay, well,
what is a portfolio of trades? Colloquially we know what a portfolio of trades is in finance. I’m not
speaking colloquially, colloquially. Now I’m speaking specifically to you about becoming a successful
options trader over the long arc of your career. I’m being very specific. There should be no ambiguity in
what I’m talking about.
(07:20):
If there is, I have failed. I’m trying very hard right now not to fail. I want to deliver value to you. So here’s
what we’re going to talk about on this webinar. A portfolio of trades. There’s something called spread
the sell off plus ai. Don’t worry about it, it’s a type of trade. Okay, we’ll look at it in the tech industry and
the financials. We’ll talk about something called buy the sell off plus our ai. We’ll do it in the Nasdaq 100
techs. Financials and healthcare, it’s fine. Those trades occur when a stock is in technical failure, it’s
going down. So what kind of market is it for the first two? It’s when the market’s going down, when a
stock is going down. Okay, what about when a stock has technical strength? It’s not going down. It’s
going up. Well, then there’s another kind of trade.
(08:01):
It’s a pre earnings momentum, diagonal call spread plus ai. Don’t worry about the names in the words.
Think about the scenarios. The first two trades are when things aren’t going that well for stocks. The
next trade is when things are going well for stocks. And we’ll look at it in the Nasdaq 100 tech stocks,
financials and healthcare as well and multiple timeframes we’ll keep building out. And then the last
thing is when a stock recaptures technical failure. So it’s in technical failure, but it’s the day that it has
recaptured it. I’m loosely calling technical failure when a stock is below the 200 day moving average. So
I’m going to talk about a day when the stock is below the 200 day moving average and all of a sudden
today it comes back up through it and that’s going to be something that we call fade, the dip plus our ai,
and I’ll talk about the NASDAQ 100 financials and healthcare.
(08:45):
And then when something doesn’t work, right, these don’t work all the time. Even if you have the right
market, the market’s going down and you think this should work. Not really. That’s not how trading is. It
takes effort, it takes a plan, it takes patience. And we’ll look at this through multiple timeframes, okay?
I’m just going to scrunch all these words together so it’s a little cleaner and I’ll keep going forward. Okay,
so what is this thing? These words, I’ve written these four trades, these different types of markets, a
tumbling market, a strong market, a market that’s recovering. This is a portfolio of trades. This is three
different ways the market is moving, and even more so while there are different markets embedded in
this is something that you may or may not know yet about option trading, but you will, is that the ones
in green are actually selling volatility, which is a fancy way of saying you’re collecting a credit when you
do option trades.
(09:41):
The blue ones, you’re actually buying volatility, which is a fancy way of saying the trade is a debit and all
of them are always spreads, and an option can only be hedged by another option. Rarely if ever in my
career have I seen a successful trader the way I’m defining it, the long arc of a career, not a good week
or a good Monday or a good Thursday or a good march, talking about the long arc of a career. Rarely if
ever have I seen someone successful at trading options if they’re not spreading option. Trading is
volatility trading, whether you mean it to be or not. So you might as well mean if this sounds really
complex, it’s not as complex as it seems. What you’re feeling right now is that you’re not familiar with
this. This is not familiar to what you’re used to and you want to lean to what is familiar.
(10:33):
That’s what effort is to see something that is not familiar to you, to know that on the other side there’s
something that is familiar to you, but to know somewhere in the back of your mind that the thing that’s
familiar to you hasn’t gotten you to where you want to be. And that means you have two choices. Don’t
do it or go toward that which is unfamiliar, that is effort. That is the effort I’m talking about. I’m explicitly
talking about this, about going towards something which you’re not familiar with. That doesn’t mean
you won’t become familiar with it, and that doesn’t mean that it’s even difficult, but it will take effort
and probably will be a little bit more difficult than you think it will be. But it will also be more satisfying if
you do it. Know thyself. Do you like the idea of being a successful trader or do you want to be a
successful trader?
(11:24):
Both choices are fine. The only mistake you can make is liking the idea and then trying anyway because
you don’t really want to. That’s how you’ll lose a lot of money, and I don’t want you to lose a lot of
money. I want you to know I have not said anything about our software. I’ve not said anything about
trade machine. I’m talking to you as an option trader, as someone who’s been doing this for more than
two decades, who’s run a hedge fund, who’s been a market maker, right? I’m not pitching you with
software now. This is me hoping to add value your life, irrespective of whether or not you hang on to
this webinar, okay? We also did this in different sectors. So that’s what I mean by a portfolio of trades.
This is what I mean by effort. What do we mean by effort?
(12:06):
This is what I mean by recognizing that something is unfamiliar. Feeling that in your gut saying, I don’t
want to do that. That sounds hard. That’s right. It does. Now run toward it. That’s effort. If you don’t
want to run toward it, it’s perfectly fine. Your life will be fine not being a traitor, but know it, honor it
and stop. Otherwise, you’re going to be in the muddled middle and you could lose a lot of money. Losing
money can affect your life in much more than monetary ways. You can lose family and friends. You just
can be honest with yourself. Is this the effort you want to put in? If it’s not, don’t watch the rest of this
webinar and please don’t feel bad about yourself if you don’t. There’s nothing wrong with it. It’s a
personal choice. Just be honest with yourself, honor yourself, love yourself.
(12:52):
Ask yourself, do I want to put in this effort? If you do, this is going to be a great webinar. If not, you’ve
learned something today and go on with the rest of your day. Enjoy it. I hope it’s a fabulous day, a
fabulous week, a fabulous year for you. I really do. And if you’re in pain, I hope the pain goes away. I
hope it gets better. So what is this called? This different markets, different trade types and spreads and
different sectors. And this portfolio just generically, what is this called? Well, it’s called a thing that
anyone who’s actually been a professional trader will tell you is the single most important step in
trading. And it’s not making money, it’s risk management, it’s risk management. The reason we do these
things is because we’re properly managing our risk, which allows us to move forward with our plan such
that we can be successful traders in the long arc of our career.
(13:43):
That’s what this is. And if you believe you can just click a couple of buttons, get something on YouTube
that has a great alert, it’s just not real, and you know it isn’t real. There’s something inside you that
knows it isn’t real. Trust that voice. That’s your intellect. That’s your intellect saying, Hey, there’s no way
that’s real. There’s just no way. So just to be clear, we’re about to get started, but I’m not here to show
you how to click buttons on trade machine. I am a little bit to show you, but that’s not the ultimate goal
of this. I’m here. You are here to see why clicking those buttons on trade machine matters to you. I
cannot do it without the beginning. This preamble isn’t just for fun. It’s the guts of trading, and if you
don’t understand or want to pursue the guts of trading and don’t understand what it entails, then it
doesn’t matter what software I show you, it’s not going to work. We don’t make false promises. We
never will. We share facts A, B, and C. We share analysis A, B, and C, and we share conclusions A, B, and
C. That’s the long arc of a career. Change your perspective to thinking about things like this, to
understanding that it’ll take a process, it will take patience with that process and it will take effort.Video 2:
Ophir Gottlieb (00:00):
Agenda is trade machine. So now it’s time to go inside trade machine. When you start trade machine,
you actually land on the today tab, which is actually the easiest way to find active triggers. But the point
of this webinar was not just to sell you on trade machine. The goal was that no matter what happens
when you walk away from this webinar, whether or not you become a trade machine member, that you
have learned something that makes you a better trader. So I’m actually going to go to the back test tab
and that’s where we can do that. Remember there was a slide where I wrote what a portfolio of trades
were and the four strategies we would use. It’s not that there’s just four strategies you can use. They’re
just the four I’m going to demonstrate now. So I’m going to pull over a snapshot I actually made of that
slide right here.
(00:45):
It was these four things. Spread the sell off, buy the sell off, pre earnings momentum and fade the dip,
all with our AI triggers. So we’ll just start with this one. Spread the sell off and this is how easy it is in
trade machine. First you go to the saved back tests. We said we were going to start with spread the sell
off, so we’ll look for it. We go to spread the sell off with AI and just load it. Okay, trade machine is going
to load one ticker. That ticker doesn’t matter to us. Now we want to do a three-year back test. You can
do any timeframe you like. I just like to start with three years. We’ll click three years. Then I’m going to
bring this slide back and I noted that we would look at the text sector. So Nasdaq 100 and financials.
(01:25):
So let’s do that. You can go into portfolios and trade machine has already built in several portfolios for
you. You can add as many portfolios as you like. These are built in, so we’ll just do the NASDAQ 100 and
we’ll let trade machine do the test. The results are now pouring in, okay, it’s going ticker by ticker by
ticker, by ticker. It’s testing it over three years. How this strategy did for each ticker, it’s ripping through
them and eventually it will show you the summary. So we’ll just let it keep going For future back tests
that we’re going to show in this webinar, I already have them preloaded so we don’t have to wait, but I
just want to show you how trade machine works and how it feels. Okay, let’s go to the top. This should
almost be done and here we go. So here’s what we got guys.
(02:08):
We have a strategy, whatever that strategy is, has an 84% win rate over the last three years over these
100 companies, 436 wins, 82 losses. That’s how we get the 84% win rate and the average trade is 27%.
And you say that’s amazing. Okay, what is this trade? First things first, what is the technical trigger? In
other words, when does this start? So we’ll scroll down and we’ll go to the technical open and just click
the button and here is the technical open. It requires four things. First, in the last 30 days, the stock is
down 10% or more. This just means the stock is incorrection. In finance, in markets, when something is
down 10% or more, we call it incorrection, whether that’s the index itself or a stock. So first thing
required, the stock is incorrection.
(02:59):
Second thing also required is that the stock is below the 200 day moving average. Okay? Stock is in
correction and it’s below the 200 day moving average. To me that means it’s in technical failure. The
third and fourth things are our proprietary ai. Alright? One measure of our ai, this asymmetry over the
last six months is below zero, and in the last year, so over the last 12 months, another measure of our ai,
the tailored the tail movement is also below zero. When all four of these things happen, this and this
and this and this, the trade opens, that is the open. And then you ask, okay, well what is the strategy?
You go underneath the strategies menu and you can see it’s a custom strategy. Well, I’m going to pull
this up right now. I want you to know as a trade machine user, you can use any strategy you like, create
any strategy you like, either the ones we have pre-built or something totally of your creation.
(03:54):
It’s unlimited. You can save as many as you like. You have a thousand strategies. You want to use them.
You don’t want to use any strategies of your own and you want to use the ones we have prebuilt do that
too. Anything you like, we’ll click the edit button and this is the trade. I’m not going to spend a lot of
time on this. Okay? We have a specific video which introduces this type of trade. I just encourage you to
see that if this feels unfamiliar to you, the idea of getting along something and then short something and
then long something and on a bit of a ratio that feels unfamiliar to you, this is what effort is. Don’t run
away from the unfamiliar thing. Take the time to become familiar and just as a quick explanation, this is
what the trade actually looks like.
(04:37):
Okay? Let’s say the current stock price is this line right here. This trade would make money if the stock
goes up at any level, it makes the most money if the stock goes down a little. So this is a stock
incorrection below the 200 day moving average with two measures of our artificial intelligence. It makes
the most money if the stock goes down and it only loses money if the stock goes down a lot. So it goes
from beyond correction and goes down maybe another 10%. But this trade, as you’ll find all trades that
we’ve preprogrammed and trade machine, it has a limited loss. There’s no unlimited loss here. We have
no naked trades here. You can test naked trades if you like, but that’s not what trade machine is about.
So this trade wins about 85% of the time, which makes sense. The trade doesn’t start losing money until
it comes all the way down here.
(05:22):
So yeah, that should win about 85% of the time and ultimately, remember it’s these results, this 84%
win rate, this average trade of return of 27%, that’s every 30 days. This trade is a 30 day trade, but all
I’ve done now is shown you a back test. Great. I’ve told you how the strategy is triggered. Okay? It’s
when the stock is in correction and below the 200 day moving average and our two measures of ai. Fine.
I’ve very briefly kind of showed you what the strategy is, okay? But I haven’t shown you how this
actually helps you. What do you do now? So what I do, we’re in the tech sector, NASDAQ 100 is I sort by
average trade,
(05:57):
So I’ll just click it twice and I can see now that each of these tickers over the last three years hear the
results and how they did on average per trade. And I’ll take the ones that did the best, but I like trades
that have happened at least three times in the last three years. So I’ll check this one, I’ll check this one,
I’ll check this one. You can see this is four wins, three wins, three wins, VRTX, six wins. I’ll go down to a
ZN, I’ll go down to a DP, I’ll go down to team. You can see eight wins and no losses. I’ll scroll down a little
bit. Raw stores, Regeneron, Texas instruments. You could take Nvidia if you wanted to. I like more than
one trade in the last three years. EA Qualcomm, you can go all the way down and just check.
(06:39):
Check the ones you like. Here’s a MD, here’s Costco, here’s Amazon. Five wins, no losses. Here’s Google,
three wins and one loss. And on and on we go. Here’s Tesla, three wins and two losses. And on and on
we go for the entire NASDAQ 100. Now, great, I clicked buttons. What do I do next? This is where trade
machine makes everything easier for you. You just click the add alert button. I’m going to click it. It takes
you to the alerts tab. You’ll see we’ve gone from the back test tab to the alerts tab. All of the tickers we
selected are already here. All of the technical conditions are already here, right? Stock is in correction.
Stock is in technical failure are two measures of artificial intelligence. And there’s certain levels. I’ll just
make a little note for myself. This is called spread sell off, and when I click add alert, I’ve just added 17
alerts.
(07:29):
I will automatically get notified either by text or by email, depending on what settings you want when
this technical condition where the stock’s basically falling apart. But our AI measures are also in certain
favorable levels, and you will get an alert with the trade, with the options that it has occurred. Once you
go through this process, which we’re going to do several times, the work has been done for you. Your
effort is going through what I just showed is understanding the trade. Don’t take trades blindly because
a machine tells you you must understand that is your effort. You have to take something that is
unfamiliar and make it familiar such that you understand the risks you are taking if you want to be a
trader and you don’t just like the idea of it. And that’s it. We’ve just created 17 alerts, and if I wasn’t
narrating, it would’ve taken us about 30 seconds.
(08:22):
17 alerts in a strategy, which has worked extraordinarily well in this industry over the last three years.
Let’s go further. I’m going to go back to the back test tab. And now instead of the NASDAQ 100, as I said
in that slide, let me bring it in again, I said we would also look at financials. Here we go, financials spread
the sell off. So how do I do that? Oh, simple enough. I go down and I select financials. Now I have this
preloaded, so I’m going to click it and then I’m going to show you the results without us waiting for it to
be computed all the way. Okay? So I’m going to click it and then I’ll show you the results. Okay, let me
drag it across
(08:55):
The results. This is in the financials. This is still spread the sell off, and here are the results for the
financials. Remember, for tech, we had an 84% win rate and a 27% average return. It actually works
better over the last three years in financials with an 85% win rate and a 31% average trade return. So
let’s do the same thing. Let’s sort it by average return, and let’s go through the ones that have had a lot
of triggers. We’ll just click ’em down. Just click in my favorites. Alright, here’s a IG Visa only had one
trade, so you can include it if you want to. I choose not to. Sometimes Capital One, here’s Goldman
Sachs with eight wins and no losses at an average trade of 44% every 30 days. Here’s MetLife, here’s
MSCI. Here’s Citibank, four wins and one loss. Here’s JP Morgan, five wins and one loss.
(09:45):
Here’s Aflac. And we would just go down the list. Check, check, check the ones that we like. Once we’ve
got our list that we like, we’ll again go to add alert. It’ll bring us to the alerts tab. The tickers are already
loaded. Make a little note if you like, spread the sell off, add the alert, and another 16 alerts were
created. Friends, we’ve just created 33 alerts, so 17 in tech and 16 in financials, which have about 84, 80
5% win rates, which historically have created a 27 to 31% monthly return. We know when it happens by
going to the back test tab. We know this technical open, this idea that we’re trying to catch a stock, it’s
down 10% or more in the last 30 days. It’s below the 200 day moving average, and it has our two
measures of artificial intelligence tuned to a certain level.
(10:35):
And rather than us checking the market every day, we just check our email or we check our phones and
we’ll see the alerts. We’ll receive the alerts when they’re happening in real time, and we’ll see the
options that comprise the strategy. The effort is to understand the strategy. Never ever, ever make a
trade of any type in any situation, in any market that you don’t 100% fully understand. That’s the effort.
The effort is clicking some buttons and understanding the trade, which may very well be unfamiliar to
you, and you want to run toward the unfamiliar rather than ducking it and going back to something
that’s familiar, which you and I both know is just not working for you. That’s why you’re on this webinar.
Okay? This was the slide. I said, we do spread the sell off. We do tech and financials.Video 3:
Ophir Gottlieb (00:00):
I’m going to go through one more trade. It’s the pre earnings momentum diagonal with ai and the rest,
you can just see how you do. You select from a dropdown menu, you select three years, you select from
another dropdown menu, the portfolio, and you just check, check, check the ones you like and
TradeMachine will do the work for you. So first things first, we go to the dropdown menu, and this time
we’re choosing pre earnings diagonal with ai, we’re just selecting it and clicking load. Let’s let
TradeMachine load a single ticker. It doesn’t matter what the ticker is. Let’s do a three year back test.
We got it. And as the slide said, we would do it in tech first. So let’s go ahead and go to portfolios and go
to the NASDAQ 100. Now I’ve already let this load, so I’m going to move my screen over and show you
the results.
(00:42):
Okay, here’s my screen where it’s already done. You can see this is the NASDAQ 100 and this is this long
diagonal. This is actually a one week trade. One week the win rate is 60%, and in one week the average
trade has been 15.6% over the last three years in the entire NASDAQ 100. And you say, okay, before you
talk to me anymore about numbers, what’s going on? So the technical open is at the very bottom. We
can click the technical open here. You can actually in TradeMachine, just scroll down. It’s right here. The
stock is above the 50 day moving average, and one of our AI measures is above one. Okay, scroll back to
the top and they say, well, when does this happen? Those are the technicals. When does it happen? It’s
actually a custom earnings timing, so I’ll click custom earnings.
(01:27):
This trade opens 14 days before earnings and closes at the latest one day before earnings. This does not
take an earnings speculation. This is a pre earnings speculation. It does not take earnings risk. There’s no
interest in taking an earnings risk or an earnings bet that’s just gambling. And for an image of what this
looks like, let me pull up an image. So first, the timing. The idea here is to go 14 days before earnings.
The E represents the earnings event 14 days before earnings and bet on this pre earnings optimism in a
very specific way. We’re not buying a naked call. We’re actually using a spread. Remember I said every
trade here is a spread, but this is the general idea. How do we benefit from this and then get out before
earnings? We don’t want the surprise move off of earnings. This is not a gamble.
(02:10):
This is a backtested strategy. Looking at pre earnings optimism, 15.6% per week, and what would we do
now? Well, you guys know already. You sort by average trade return and you chuck the ones that have
worked the best. Right? Here we go. Here’s Pepsi, here’s Apple. Five wins and no losses. Here’s
Microsoft three wins and no losses. Here’s Biogen. Just keep going down the list. We get to Google two
wins and one loss. We get to Zscaler, we get to team, so we check, check, check the ones we want. We
click add alert. You know the drill by now. Everything will automatically be loaded in for you, and all you
have to do is click add alert. We only added eight alerts here, but I was just going quickly. This is for
demonstration purposes. There’s more than eight. And then what happens if we want to try a different
portfolio? What if we want to try a different type of stock, right? Not just
(02:58):
Tech stocks. Well, we’ll just choose it this time. We’ll do healthcare, and when I do healthcare, I’ve
already got it preloaded. Okay, here are the results. Preloaded for healthcare with the preloading is
diagonal. And you can see in this industry, win rate is 54% and the average trade return is 5% over a
week. This is an industry where I would just not do these trades, so I wanted to show an example that
nothing works all the time, doesn’t work in every industry. This is a trade, this pre earnings diagonal, this
pre earnings, optimism, speculation in an industry healthcare, which actually doesn’t work very well.
When I see something like this, I say, oh, okay, that’s no problem this year I’m not going to do these
trades. It’s not that there aren’t some that did well or didn’t do well. I want to make sure there’s
strength across the board, and if there is, then I’m willing to cherry pick the best.
(03:45):
Alright guys, I’m going to bring that slide back, right? I said I would do these four strategies. I’ve shown
you this one. I’ve shown you this one. You can figure out how to do these, right? You just pull it from a
dropdown menu. I’ve shown you something that does not work. And friends, that’s it. This is
TradeMachine. This is the plan. It’s a full plan. I said, you need a process, patience and effort. This is the
process. You find the strategy. Maybe it’s pre earnings optimism. Maybe it’s when a stock is collapsing.
Then those are the technical triggers. Is there anything else special about it? This one does have
something special about it. It’s only 14 days before earnings. It’s not just when the stocks above the 50
day moving average and our AI triggers, it’s also 14 days before earnings. That’s the process.
(04:25):
That’s the plan. The patience is taking the time to do this, add the alerts, and have patience with
yourself. Not every trade wins every time. That’s not the idea. The patience is about you. It’s personal.
And finally, the effort. The effort to learn the trades, to understand the trades before you even get near
them. Please don’t ever do a trade from any service ever in any industry, in any form. If you don’t
understand what you’re risking, what you could make, what it means to you. And don’t worry,
TradeMachine is here to help. If you go to community, you get live chat help right away in the
community from a former market maker or from other traders. And if you don’t like using live help or
community, you go to the learn tab. And let’s say we just wanted to learn what that spread. The selloff
thing was, I know I shared an image of it, but it wasn’t really clear.
(05:15):
Okay, what is spread? The selloff legitimately, I’m willing to put in the effort. Please help me understand
it. Just type in, spread the selloff. It’s the first thing that comes up. And all of a sudden you’ll get yourself
a full video just on the strategy. Really dedicate it to how the strategy works, why you would do it, why
you wouldn’t do it, what the risks are, how it works in which industries and when. And friends, this is the
end of our webinar. I cannot show you everything TradeMachine can do. That wasn’t the point. The
point was that no matter what happens, now that we’re at the end of the webinar, you have learned
something about a process, about patience, about effort, what a process means, how one could be
done, what patience means, what a portfolio of trades means,
(05:56):
What risk management means, and how TradeMachine can do this for you. The process part, the
planning part, that’s TradeMachine, the patience and the effort that’s on you. TradeMachine can help
with community and with the learn tab, you have to decide for yourself, is this something where you like
the idea of it? Or is this something that you want to do? Be kind to yourself. Honor yourself. It’s not a
character flaw off. You don’t want to do this, but if you want to be a successful trader, it’s going to come
back to the slides. Process, patience and effort. Effort, it’s probably going to be harder than you think it
will be, but because of that, it’s probably going to be more satisfying than you think It will be.
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