Summary
In this detailed webinar, Ophir Gottlieb dives into the significance of skew and kurtosis in trading. The session’s goal: to improve trading strategies by incorporating advanced statistical concepts, not utilized before. Gottlieb introduces an AI discovered, proprietary measure that is utilized throughout the video and in TradeMachine. Gottlieb introduces machine learning, specifically to TradeMachine, and discusses the impact of return distribution characteristics, emphasizing kurtosis and skew. He employs a mix of basic and complex explanations, ensuring the webinar caters to a wide audience, from beginners to those with advanced statistical knowledge.
Gottlieb explains tail risk, kurtosis, and skew with simple analogies and visual charts, making these complex topics accessible. He presents statistical findings to illustrate how understanding these metrics can significantly enhance trading outcomes, emphasizing the practical applications in both stock and options trading. Throughout the webinar, Gottlieb intersperses real-life examples and humor to keep the audience engaged, culminating in a powerful message about the dedication required for successful trading. He also touches on the importance of documenting trading strategies to avoid common pitfalls.
Full Transcript:
Ophir Gottlieb (00:00:24):
Okay. First we have to start with disclaimers. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security ever. This is not advice. Here is the agenda. We just said the agenda. What is the goal of this webinar to help you trade better by using advanced statistical concepts and implementing them directly into trading? We’ll use historical results as a reference. All right, we’ve gone through the first two bullet points. What are we going to cover? We’re going to be implementing ai. That’s several different types, some of which is from chat, GPT, other large language models, and some of our own machine learning. CML is capital market laboratories, so CML ML is just capital market laboratories, machine learning. We will talk about return distribution characteristics, and if that just sounds garbled to you, that’s fine. The webinar is designed for those who have no experience in statistics at all, and at the same time of those who have advanced statistical knowledge, PhDs, the matter similar.
(00:01:42):
I’m sure you’ll enjoy going through some of the basics, and then I’ll show you some things that it’s possible you’ve never seen before. I can’t say it for sure. We’ll also talk about sentiment and we’ll talk about alpha and beta, but in particular, this webinar is about return distribution characteristics. I’m not going to shoot a fire hose at you. It’s pointed. We’ll touch on sentiment and alpha, but it’s about return distribution characteristics. So that means specific use cases in return distribution characteristics. In particular, something called kurtosis. You don’t have to know what it is, something called skew. You don’t have to know what that is and why it matters.
(00:02:23):
Then we’ll do some stuff in the apps. All right, look at that. We’re halfway through the agenda. That was easy, right? All right. First I’m going to give you some definitions. The definitions will start with words, and then they’ll come with charts, and for those of you for whom this is new, I think the charts are just going to be more valuable than the words, but some people learn better with text as well. So I’m trying to offer both sort of the visual and the auditory. Okay? So we’re going to be talking about tail risk, okay?
(00:02:54):
It looks like we’re going to be adopting a dog tomorrow. I’m not talking about that kind of tail. Talking about the risk of an extreme event occurring that could drastically change the value of a portfolio or investment. We then talk about something called ketosis, which is statistically the tailored of the probability distribution. So tail risk is this extreme event or the risk of an extreme event. Kurtosis measures how much of that tail risk you have. Kurtosis is a measure of tail risk. It specifically provides information about the tails and the sharpness of the distribution. Again, this is for people who learn better auditory and those who do better visually. I’ll follow it up, don’t worry. So if this is still feeling kind of freakish to you, that’s all right. It’s okay. I’m speaking to a very large audience, so some people will prefer one. Some of the other I’ll provide both.
(00:03:59):
It is a measure of risk or opportunity ultimately. So you can wipe out all the top bullet points, and I’m talking about a particular risk or opportunity, okay? Tail events. This is what PIMCO said. So one of the largest fixed income shops, bill Gross, Mohamad, Elian, I mean they both left, but they built it. So tail events are very rare in normal distributions and normal here, we’re not using the word normal colloquially. We’re using it fundamentally as a definition, so a type of distribution at Gaussian distribution, but in finance, they’re much more frequent. So we see fatter tails, much fatter tails than people realize. PIMCO said that, and you always want to look at the fixed income guys for conversations and discussions on tail risks, because the only risk they face is tail risk, but there’s also the tail of the tails, so tail risk, and then the really edgy stuff in the tails. We’re going to talk about that too. Okay? The tail of tails.
(00:05:05):
Alright, so let’s turn those words into pictures. Okay? So I’m going to give you two distributions. One is going to be in blue, dark blue. It’s going to be the normal distribution, and the one that’s in orange or gold or however you see that color is going to be a fat tail. So it would be what we would call larger ketosis, the tailored this. Okay, so the next thing you’re going to see is two charts, one on top of the other. Okay? So the blue one is normal, the orange one is fat tails. What do I mean by fat tails? First of all, what are we looking at? The vertical axis up and down is the frequency of an event. So the events in this area occur very often. The most often for these two distributions. The events that occur over here or over here, they’re lower on the vertical axis, they occur less frequent, but in the orange or gold distribution, the tails are bigger. These are the tails, right? So the likelihood or the frequency of a loss is much larger. This is the kurtosis. The frequency of a tail event is much larger and in particular in this one, same thing on the right hand side. The frequency, the frequency of an event is larger. This level is larger than the level down where the blue is. This is fat tail distribution.
(00:06:31):
So when I say kurtosis, I’m talking about the fatness of the tails. When I’m talking about tails, I’m talking about events which happen less frequently. Alright, I’m going to take this image, you see, and I’m just going to stuff it in the right hand corner. Now I’m going to talk about it. These are fatter tails that we looked at, right? I’ll go back. These are fatter tails, but they’re symmetric. You guys see that? They’re symmetric, they’re fatter here and are here the same amount, so same size tails. This is the downside tail and the upside tail. So we can talk about kurtosis, we can talk about tail fatness ness, but we can also talk about the symmetry of it. What if we could find stalks where there were asymmetric tails, right? So for example, a bullish speculation, we would want the green but not the red. We’d want this, right? But we would want this.
(00:07:33):
We’d want an asymmetry. We’d want the upside to be greater than the downside, or in a bearish speculation, we would want the red, but not the green. We’d want this, but not this. Where the downside is greater than the upside. That would be an asymmetry. So this combines the fatness of tails analysis, ketosis with asymmetry. Asymmetry, right? Asymmetric tails. So here’s our third definition. So skew. Skew is a measure of asymmetry or symmetry if you prefer. That’s skew. So we have tail risk, it’s the risk of an extreme event. We have kurtosis, which is the frequency of that extreme event, and then we have skew, which is the asymmetry in the context of stock performance. The skewness or the skew refers to the measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution. And as luck would have it, there’s two kinds of skew. There’s positive skew and there’s negative skew.
(00:08:45):
So this part of the presentation was for those who learned better auditory, and now I’m going to go to visual. Okay, I’ll go to a few images. So now let’s talk about skew in images. I’m going to show you three different pictures. I’ve kind of gone around the world and shown these pictures, not literally around the world. I’ve shown people, and these three seem to get the entire population. So this is one example of negative skew. You notice that the tail and everything’s to the left hand side, no upside tail, it’s all to the left right now. Or here’s positive skew. This is what people would normally refer to. Sorry, this is what people in standard would call the log normal distribution. This is stock returns because stocks can only go down a to a hundred percent, right? There is no tail risk in a stock.
(00:09:34):
It can go down to zero, but hypothetically, and we’re being hypothetical now, a stock can go up infinitely they don’t, but there’s a very, very, very long right tail. So stock distributions, returns, solutions are logged, normally distributed, so as positive skew, that’s negative skew. If that picture didn’t work for you, maybe a little color. Okay, that’s okay. Let’s try a different chart. That’s one. Lemme try another one. This is what a normal distribution would look like. Normal meaning a gian distribution, not normal in the colloquial sense and this’s a positive skew kind of leaning over here and there’s a negative skew kind of leaning over here. Okay? So you can think of a normal distribution and you took your finger and you’re right at the peak and you just kind of pushed it. If you push it to the left a little bit, you get that positive skew and you, sorry, push it.
(00:10:23):
Yeah, push it to the right a little bit. You get the negative skew. Alright, if that picture didn’t work for you, I have one more picture for you. It’s all three of them together. Blue is a normal distribution, green is a positive skew and red is a negative skew. So these are my three illustrations of skew asymmetry. These are synonyms. Okay? So let’s talk about it a little bit. Remember we said in a bullish speculation, we want the green but not the red and a bear speculation. We want the red but not the green. Then we started saying, well gosh, what if that means we kind of want an asymmetry maybe?
(00:11:00):
And then so we said, well actually asymmetry has a name. There’s positive. We would want positive skew and negative skew. So we’re starting to get an understanding just at a high level what might interest us. I haven’t proven that it does interest us. I’m just saying hypothetically it could interest us. So we refer to this green and red part as kurtosis and we refer to the asymmetry as skew. So kurtosis and skew, that’s what we’re going to be talking about today. This chart and this chart, our research in the option space is rather famed, and please check my background after this webinar when someone says our research is famous or we’re published in certain places, bullshit check.
(00:11:53):
Just check. Okay? So please check my background after this in the email where we send out the recording of this, we’ll put a link to our background, but there’s some things I want to say. I’m going to share with you ideas behind what we’ve discovered, the ethos, the spirit. I’m going to describe it to you, the spirit, but I’m not going to share the exact algorithm. And you say, well, why not? There’s a famous saying, I’m sure some of you have heard it. It’s called Once bitten, twice Shy. So we did some research, some groundbreaking research in 2016, and it was about pre earnings optimism. It’s this idea that right before earnings, a certain group of companies tend to have this optimism that they’re going to be earnings and the stocks just rise. It’s not an earnings bet. The trade closes well before earnings, actually a day before earnings. You just ride this kind of optimistic wave and that research was very, very well read and some of the largest firms in the world published it on top of us and most didn’t give us credit. Now, unfortunately, I cannot share it to you if it was privately sent to clients, but what I can share with you is what they did in public and they did some stuff in public.
(00:13:10):
So when I published the research on LinkedIn, some of the people at the firms weren’t paying attention that they weren’t logged in without their identity essentially anonymously. And who were those firms? Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, BMO, Merrill Lynch and Bloomberg. You can go into my LinkedIn and you can see I’m not sharing anything that I can’t share. I want to share what Goldman Sachs put out before earnings, but I can’t. Turns out my lawyer said that’d be breaking a copyright. Okay, so once bitten, twice shy. So how do you verify the results I’m going to show you if I don’t hand you the algorithm? It’s a fair question. It’s a high IQ question. I would say it’s definitely a scientific question. Scientists. As scientists, we look to disprove things. Every scientific method application is to disprove the null hypothesis.
(00:14:11):
So what I can do for you is you can just do it in trade machine and I’ll show you how to do it in a few minutes, okay? Now we’ve made our way all the way through this far. Now we’re into results. So what I have done hopefully for you is motivated why we’re talking about what we’re talking about. And now I need to motivate it further because I can talk to you about a lot of interesting things, particularly in mathematics and statistics, which simply don’t matter in finance because they’ve already been discovered and my claim to you today is that this not been discovered, but let me prove it to you.
(00:14:58):
So you would do it through pattern finder or trade machine. Alternatively, you could do it through this webinar. I want to be very clear, I have not demonstrated that any of this matters yet. All I have done is demonstrated why it might matter. So if you’re listening to this and you could be saying that’s true. I’d like fatter tails on the upside for bullish bet, or I’d like skew leaning to a positive skew or both hypothetically, it makes sense. It’s a logical argument. You haven’t proven it to me yet. It’s logical. So I want to be clear, I have not demonstrated that it matters yet. That’s what I’m going to do. Now, just because I spoke about it with some domain expertise does not mean I have provided you value yet.
(00:15:48):
And when I talk about it, I mean return distribution characteristics. Remember at the beginning of the webinar I said I’m going to talk about return distribution characteristics and that might sound like Greek to you. Well, now you know what I’m talking about. I’m talking about the fatness of the tails. You can call it kurtosis and I’m talking about the asymmetry in the return distribution or skew if you like. So why does it matter? Why do return distribution characteristics matter beyond a sort of pedantic conversation of how distributions could work? So the first thing I’m going to do is motivate it with stock returns. Then I’m going to motivate it with win rates on option trades, not returns, win rates on option trades, win rates. Then I’m going to motivate it with win rates and returns on successful option strategies already in trade machine and I’m going to use statistical significance as our backbone.
(00:16:44):
Let’s motivate it with stock returns. This is the beginning of results. If we took the constituents of the s and p 520 18, we know what they are five years now. So I looked at the constituents of the s and p 500 in 2018. I looked at it on Jan first, actually Jan second of 2018. I didn’t do anything. I waited till June 30th, 2018 and I said, okay, I want to see the average one year return for every stock in that group from June, 2018 to June 20, 23, 1 year return. Every single stock in the s and p 500, the win rate, which is simply measured as were the returns positive or negative was 59.4%. In fact makes sense. Stocks go up in general. In particular large caps, the average one year return was 10%. This is not me doing anything. This is observational. You can do this too. I will show you, you can see how the stocks and the s and p 500 did over the last five years, and I’m not changing the basket. I just said whoever’s in the s and p 520 18, I’ll follow you for five years.
(00:17:58):
Then I said, well, what if we took a measure of kurtosis, which I’m not going to tell you exactly how we did it. It’s not just the return distribution and I just said it was greater than one. This is already standardized for the normal. So for those of you that are statisticians, it’d be greater than four and the average return went from 10% to 13%. The win rate went from 59% to 63. There was a 99.9% statistical significance. So what that means, what that means in English is that, by the way, we’re not done. I have many more to go on this slide. If we just were to stop here, well there is a one minus 99.9% chance that we would find these results as they are and that it would be random. So 0.1% chance in finance. So generally in statistics, you’re looking for 95% confidence unless you’re doing some sort of burn newly adjustment. And in finance, if you can get anything over 90%, you’re kind of like, I think I found the holy grail. Yeah, we’re just doing it straight down the middle, the normal way.
(00:19:11):
We’re not bending the rules. Okay, let’s say I said that’s interesting. What if I took, do you remember when I said the tail of the tails? Remember that the tail of the tails, what if I said the tail, the upside kurtosis, the neck kurtosis was greater than three and again, for those of you that are statisticians, I’d be greater than six. It’s relative to the normal. All of a sudden the win rates went from 63.1 to 63.9, the average return from 13% to 15%. Statistical significance rose. Now I’m only talking about the tails so far, right? I’m not talking about the asymmetry of returns. I haven’t talked about sku. Well, let’s do that. What if I just said let’s drop everything and just take the sku. Let’s say over six month period I at made sure it was positive SKU greater than one.
(00:20:00):
You can say zero. Think of zero as having no return. Asymmetry. One is having anything greater than zero would be having a return. Asymmetry. That’s what would we called positive skew, and this is kind of a fairly large positive skew. Okay, now then rates go to 64%. The average one, your return goes up to 16%, right? We call this asymmetry. Okay, I’m not going to go through everything, but here’s the last one. If I said, well, what if I took the tail of the tails, I took the one year kurtosis, it was greater than three. I took the medium term skew, six month greater than one, and the one year skew greater than two. So I took the tails of the tails and I took asymmetry. Here’s what we got. The win rate went from 59% to 66% and the average trade went from 10% to 20% with very strong statistical significance. So look, as we kept adding return distribution characteristics, how the win rates went up and the returns went up, this is the net net.
(00:21:08):
So remember this. Remember when I said I have not demonstrated that it matters. All I have done is demonstrated why it might matter. Now for stocks, I have demonstrated that it matters, but let’s be clear, I said I want to motivate with stock returns. Let’s start there. Let trading strategy was a triviality. There was nothing special I did here. I checked the skew and kurtosis for each stock in the s and p 500 and if it qualified, I held the stock for a year and I did nothing else. I used no technical analysis. I didn’t check if I should hold it for six months or three months or nine months or 17 weeks. I didn’t rebalance the s and p 500. That was a triviality. That’s the entire strategy. It’s not clever. It’s the results that are not a triviality. So wants you to imagine your win rates rising by about 10% by about 10%. I mean going from 59% to 66% is about a 10% increase in win rates with 99.9% statistical significance. And now I want you to imagine your day trading. Your swing trading, really swing trading. I shouldn’t have said day trading. Your swing trading returns, doubling. Just because I checked an annual holding period doesn’t mean that we’re going to do annual traits.
(00:22:36):
So that’s the takeaway for stocks. The strategy can be optimized. It was rather trivial. The results were not a triviality. This is a remarkable finding for stock triggers. The ability to double your average returns and see win rates go up about 10%, not 10 percentage points, 10% comparatively is life changing if it’s sustainable. So it’s a remarkable finding for stock traders and it should translate into truly remarkable finding for option traders because options are levered. So I said first we would motivate it with stock returns. We’ve done that. I said second, we would motivate it with win rates on option trades, not returns first win rates. So I tried something really boring. I took a put spread and I just did it every month for every company in the s and p 500, same group. That’s all I did every month. I didn’t care if those earnings there weren’t earnings, technicals blah, didn’t care blindly every 30 days, roll, roll, roll, sell a put spread, sell a put spread, sell a put spread. The win rate was 61%. You know can have a good win rate when you’re selling put spreads spread, but it’s still a shitty strategy. I can give you win rates that are 80% which have bad returns. I can make you feel really good about your win rates.
(00:24:14):
So next thing I did, I said, Hey, what if we just took the one year kurtosis and said it was greater than one. Our win rates went from 61% to 64%, but this is over almost 16,000 trades. I cannot, there’s no such thing as a hundred percent statistical significance. Excel doesn’t have enough decimals to show the 99.9, but again, a shitty option strategy is still a shitty option strategy. Don’t worry, there’s a point to this. If you look over three years, again, win rates are mean, that’s fine, but you’re not making any money. We add kurtosis, our win rates are statistically significant to, I don’t know, 10 decimal places. Returns are a little better, but this is just a dumb option. Trade is still a dumb option Trade. Just selling a monthly put spread in the s and p 500, every constituent SP 500 is not a good strategy.
(00:25:08):
If it was, we wouldn’t need this webinar. We’d all be rich. And then over half a year, same thing. Win rates are actually much higher over the last half year, which shows you that the last half year has been a bull market. In a bull market. This appears that it might work even better, but again, bad strategy is a bad strategy. I’m going to move this chart up a little bit. So I told you that statistical that there would be a statistically significant impact on win rates, I’m intentionally looking at a non strategy, something that should not win, should not have a positive average return. These average returns likely reflect commissions. We have commissions and trade machine. I think commissions are around 2%. So basically you’re just giving your money to the market, but a bad option strategy is still a bad option. Strategy, right?
(00:26:08):
I said first I would motivate it with stock returns, it being return distribution characteristics. I did that. Then I said I would motivate it with win rates on option trades, it being return distribution characteristics. Then I said I would motivate it with win rates and returns on successful strategies that already exist in trade machine. Now lemme prove it to you. We just did the benchmark selling a put spread. These are the same numbers that I just showed you. Now I’m going to show you a strategy that’s in trade machine fade, the dip. It’s also selling a put spread, but only when certain technical conditions are met, the win rates go from 60% to 75%. The average returns go from a loser to a winner, and the statistical significance is through 32 decimals through floating point precision. Okay? Now I’m going to take the fade, the dip and say I only want to do it in companies where the skew is positive, which means it’s a right-leaning skew and the same ketosis, the one year ketosis is greater than one and here are the results.
(00:27:22):
There’s no statistical difference between these two win rates. But now we’re looking at something, a benchmark that went from negative 5% trade machine provided extraordinary value getting the same trade but going 8% positive return. Now we’re at 14%. Let’s go further over three years. This is actually not the NASDAQ 100, I dunno why it says that this is the s and p 500. Sorry, you’ve seen these numbers. This is the same numbers from prior slides. Now fade the dip. Look at the win rate statistically significant from a negative 3%, from a 3% loser to an 11% winner fade. The dip with tail dynamics, 17% returns about the last half a year. The last half year the returns went from negative three to four, but that doesn’t really count anymore because we’re getting very few trades, 35 trades. So let’s look at the entire s and p 500 for faith that did over the last half a year go from negative 3% to a positive 9% and the win rate is statistically significantly larger both to the benchmark and to the prior fade the dip.
(00:28:40):
So what happened? Fade the dip is a winner. This is the immense value of trade machine as it exists currently. Current trade machine members, you’ve been getting a lot of value with this strategy, but fade the dip with skew and kurtosis is a bigger winner and this is the start of the immense value of trade machines upgrade. Just the start we’ve just begun. Let’s look at something else. A put selling, a put spread is selling options. It’s receiving a credit. Let’s go the other way. Let’s buy a call spread. Remember I told you that what we discovered was this pre earnings optimism and it was copied by many, many large banks, Goldman Sachs down the line, I wish I could share. They actually published it to the clients. If you’re a client, if you’re wondering, wow, I was weird in 2018, they started talking about bullish bets into earnings like yeah, that’s weird. So in trade machine we have a 14 day calendar spread. This is over the s and p 505 years win rates, 55% average return is 6% in a week. This is a one week trade. Okay, let’s add kurtosis to it. The win rate goes up to 56%, the average return goes up to 10%. Statistical significance is almost at 95%. Let’s go to the last three years. Trade machine’s given you 10% a week.
(00:30:06):
We add kurtosis, we’re at 20% a week and the statistical significance on the win rates is now 97.5%. Let’s go to the last half year by the way, that’s obviously a doubling of the average return. Now let’s go to the last six months as many trade machine members will know. If we’ve been using the current strategies, it feels like we’ve been running in the mud a little bit with kurtosis. 4% went to 11% and that of course is nearly a tripling of the average return. We’ve shown a doubling of the average return in stocks and now a doubling or a tripling of the average return in options with statistical significance across a variety of strategies, selling options, buying options, ignoring earnings before earnings.
(00:31:10):
The pre earnings calendar is a winner and that’s the immense value of trade machine as it exists currently. The last three years have been good. A pre earnings calendar is with skew and kurtosis is a bigger winner and this is the start of the immense value of trade machines upgrade. Let’s do it again. We have something called buy the dip in trade machine. We use Bollinger Bands. I won’t give away the exact technicals because trade machine numbers pay too much money for me to do that. Over the last five years, it’s been really, really good. 59% win rate on buying options. It’s a spread, but that’s very, very good. 13% on, I think this is a two week trade. Great. Now we add kurtosis, kind of the same kind of the many fewer trades kind of the same.
(00:32:02):
What if I added the tail of the tails though? The average return went from 13% to 23%. Let’s go further over three years not working as well, which means it worked five and four years ago, but for the last three years it hasn’t been working that well. Well, we add ketosis in there. A particular type of ketosis, the average trade goes up to 11%. We add the tail of tails, the win rate jumps higher and we go to 13%. That’s from a loss to a gain. This is over two weeks. Let’s do over the last half. Again, something very odd is happening in the bull market. Some of the old strategies aren’t working. You add kurtosis, the average trade is 53% and the tail of tails, it’s also 53%. Granted, this is only 12 trades, so let’s not get too excited. The point is losses are turning into gains.
(00:33:00):
So by the dip, Bollinger has struggled, but by the dip with kurtosis is a huge winner. Remember I said first I would motivate it with stock returns, it being return distribution characteristics, and then I said I would motivate it with win rates on option trades and then I said I would motivate it with win rates and returns on successful strategies already in trade machine. I did that too. I showed stock, I showed three option strategies. I could have filled five hours with the strategies that exist in trade machine and how they’ve improved. This is the second time in my 25 year career that I’ve seen what can be called the statistical anomaly or even an aberration. An aberration is a departure from what is normal, usual or expected.
(00:34:01):
This is remarkable. As of July 3rd, 2023, pattern finder and trade machine will exist with and without skew and ketosis. So it’ll exist as it exists today and then it will exist with skew and kurtosis and other ai. Remember I told you there was going to be sentiment alpha. I’ll show you that too. I just didn’t want to give you a fire hose with and without skew and kurtosis. The price will not change if you are unmoved by this aberration. That’s okay. You don’t have to be. You can buy trade machine or pattern finder if you so wish for the price. It’s today with SKU and kurtosis. The price of pattern finder will triple and trade machine will double. That’s if you join after July 3rd. If you join before July 3rd, you get it for the current price with a free upgrade. I just want to remind people of what we found and then we’ll go a little bit further.
(00:34:54):
Again, remember, the stock trading strategy that was a triviality could certainly be improved. The results were not a triviality. I’m going to gray that out for a second. I want to talk about the options. The option strategies were not a triviality, right? Fade. The dip was remarkably better than the benchmark of just selling an option of put spread. So trade machine tested strategies already. The results were also not a triviality. I want you to imagine now on your option trades, your win rates rising by about 10% with 99% statistical significance. And imagine your average returns doubling or tripling. That’s the option. Takeaway. These are the takeaways. A doubling or tripling over the long arc of trades. Am I guaranteeing that? No. Who guarantees anything? That’s ridiculous. Can you prove it to yourself that that’s what’s happened? Yeah, you really can trade by trade, day by day, price by price, stock by stock strategy by strategy, absolutely. You can every single decimal point you can test it yourself, prove it to yourself.
(00:36:11):
Will you be able to replicate these new measures? No, you will not. Once bitten, twice shy. These results are discussing the long arc of a career. So I’m going to show you some more and I hope someone will remember, someone will remind me I have a message for traders has nothing to do with trade machine or pattern finder or CML Pro. Nothing to do with skewer, kurtosis, not selling anything. Something that I need you to hear because we are each the protagonist of our own lives. We’re each the main characters in our own lives. Embrace that and love that. While you love others, of course. And so in my movie or I’m the main character, I’ll have one object of desire. That’s how movies, just so you guys know, that’s how movies are made. A protagonist who takes a path to get to their object of desire.
(00:37:09):
And it’s through that their expectations and their expected outcomes and then how life is different than their expectations that it creates story. Story creates a movie, blah, blah, blah. Okay? So you always have a protagonist and an object of desire. My object of desire in my movie is to help people. And it’s not just in finance. I spend a lot of time and a lot of money on medical research. So since I’m the protagonist of my movie, I want to tell you something important, but it’s not right now. It’s going to be at the end of the webinar. Hopefully someone will remind me because anyone who’s been on these webinars knows very well. I don’t remember anything that’s not written down.
(00:37:51):
The reason I’m not saying it now is because I use a little bit of foul language and I know it is just an absolute honor that I know some people bring their young ones to watch some of these webinars and I’m not going to betray that trust. So when the language becomes rated r, I’m going to put a big disclaimer. I’m going to tell people I’m going to put a timer on the screen so kids can mute for 30 seconds and then we’ll bring ’em back. Okay? So that now is not the time. So next part of the webinar, we look how fast we’re moving is in the platform pattern finder. Here we go. By the way, you know how I said in pattern finder and trade machine, it would be in July 3rd. I was just kidding. It’s in pattern finder right now.
(00:38:30):
Let’s go to stock screens. Let’s go to our directional charts chart. Let’s go to bullish charts over three years, I’m going to choose ticker TDC. And why is that? Because it’s one year. Kurtosis is very large. It’s six month kurtosis is very large. It’s one year skew. That’s its asymmetry is large and it’s six months. Asymmetry is large. Notice automatically these four numbers are in every single screen prebuilt in pattern finder. You don’t have to do it. We did it for you. Let’s click on the chart. Here’s the chart, the three-year chart, which in and of itself is like, I guess, I don’t know, uptrend, I don’t know, of course. So first let’s turn on some congestion lines. Okay, we can see that just crossed through a congestion line that was formed through some peaks and some troughs while we’re at it. Let’s turn on trend support and resistance.
(00:39:27):
So here’s oops, here’s trend resistance right at the all time high. Here’s trend support on higher lows. Let’s make sure we see all the patterns. We see now that this congestion that just broke through was through the top of a cup, the bottom of a cup of handle and two other tops. And while we’re at it, let’s take a look at our profit and loss zone. This is a stock which has a bullish chart and it’s a bullish chart because it’s next downside. P and l zone is about 3%, right? You’d stop out at around, I dunno, 51 small stop. Next upside is near that all time high, which would be know, what’s that? 59, right? That’s an 11.7% upside. And one other thing. Now remember what I said, it’s the long arc of a career. Now we have in our back pocket, if we go to financial stats, we scroll down.
(00:40:30):
We know the ketosis both measures, both time periods and the return asymmetry skew, if you prefer, is positive. Now we have probabilities in our back pocket, statistically significant probabilities over five years, three years and a half a year. Now we can measure a trade, not just by the strength of its chart, but by the strength of its return distribution characteristics. Let’s build a new screen together before we go to trade machine. And then, oh, before I go to trade machine, I’m going to show you something else. You guys now have stock screen. Let’s create a new screen. I want revenue in the last year to be at least 250 million. I want free cashflow. I’m just going to search for it. I can’t find it everywhere. Free cashflow margin to be greater than zero. I just want companies that are making money fine. I want the market cap.
(00:41:30):
I don’t like trading micro caps. You can feel free to market cap. I want at least, I dunno, 500 million market cap or whatever. Okay, now I want to do the ketosis stuff. You know that stuff talked about ketosis? Oh yeah, with a one year ketosis. Let’s do a tail of tails greater than three. Remember that tail of tails bug bad. Okay, six month kurtosis greater than one. And since we’re here, let’s do the S skew. I don’t know one and one, I don’t know. Just making up numbers. Okay, this isn’t quite working so obviously, so we’re going to have to refresh. Actually, I’m going to refresh. I think it is working. I just need to refresh. I’m not going to let you see my, let’s do, oh, I didn’t remember. Okay, so I’ll just redo it real quick.
(00:42:22):
Free cash flow margin is at least zero, otherwise not as positive. Market cap. Market cap, at least 500 million. And then let’s go to the SKUs. Save one, one and one. And actually I want this to be greater than three if that exists. Alright, 226 companies. Alright, let’s take a look. I actually don’t care that much. Let’s see. Sort by market cap. Let’s take a look at, I don’t know, Cisco. So these are companies which have a certain amount of revenue. They positive free cashflow. They’re not micro caps and they have all of the tail dynamic return distribution dynamics that we’ve talked about. So I’ll just choose Cisco for example. Click on it. I’ll just close this for a second and here we go again, here’s a stock. I’ll take off the highs and lows so we can look at this a little more clearly. It’s going to fight through this double bottom. It’s the end of an ascending base. It’s right here. Its downside is to trench support, which is about 7% Downside, there’s about 9% upside to what would be about $56, which would be the intermediate point of the double bottom. And we have kurtosis and skew on our side and we know that we saw it in the screener, but we can always just check right here.
(00:43:57):
So that’s just an example and if you want to go through those quickly, we can just view this as a watch list. Here are all the tickers and can I think I can hit space bar maybe. So we can go through each chart if you want to. Don’t worry, I’m not going to do it. But you can go through each chart, wait until you find when you want. Knowing full well that you have now is return distribution characteristics on your side. It looks like a LG and is up after hours, by the way. So that’s how you would do it. Okay? Now the piece, the resistance, click on ask GPT. You’re allowed to. Now let’s say I wanted to see tail dynamics and skew dynamics. I would compare a stock to the market.
(00:44:55):
We looked at, oops, we looked at, let me X out. There’s a little X here, you can’t see it. I’m an admin, sorry, it’s going to take me four hours to get it. When we went to our bullish charts, TDC, right? So let’s say we wanted to examine TDC further. Let’s go to ask GPT. This is now giving access to both chat GPT, but also our own ai, right? It’s kind of a handshake decision tree. So compare TDC to the market, ask, do a little learning hypothetically this will work. So I’ll show you or we will show you the summary for TDC since 2020. January 2nd. So about three and a half years, I’m going to go a little further. Here’s over the last year. Start date and end date are right here. Officially it’s 0.99 years, not one year. These are the number of the number of days.
(00:45:58):
TDC outperformed in the number of days it underperformed. On the days it outperformed, it was 0.9%. And the days it underperformed, it was 0.83%. So it outperforms more often than it underperforms barely on the days it outperforms, it returns more than it does when it underperforms. So that should mean it outperforms and it does. TDC returned about 40% in the last year while the market’s done 15%. But here’s our dynamics, the upside ketosis. Our proprietary upside ketosis is 36. Remember I talked about the asymmetry. So there’s a ketosis on the right hand side, the tail, the fatness of the tail is 36. The fatness of the tail on the left hand side is 17. Remember I said in that slide I said, what if we could have asymmetry in those tails? So the net of this minus this means we have this positive ketosis. The way we’re computing it, it’s a rather involved computation and it can’t be reverse engineered, which is great. So this minus, this is what you’re going to find in the screener about 19 whatever. Same thing with the skewness. This is the right hand side and the left hand side. You want this plus this to be positive. If you’re looking for a bullish strategy or if you’re looking for a bearer strategy, you want this plus this to be negative. And we know that about TDC because that was in our screen.
(00:47:18):
Here is a chart of the days it outperformed and the days it underperformed the market over one year and three years. If you wanted to compare a stock to another stock and not just the market, like if you wanted to compare Apple to Microsoft, you can do that now too. Apple has outperformed Microsoft 21 more days than it has underperformed in the last three and a half years. Let’s do the last year, six days, six more days in the last year. Its outperformance day is actually smaller than its underperformance day, which is another way of saying Microsoft’s outperformance day versus Apple is larger. And then you can see the proprietary ketosis and skew dynamics recentered around Microsoft and Apple. So this is now a resetting. So if you were a payer trader, I know of nothing more powerful than this. I’ve never seen anything this powerful in pair trading. And this is if I’m a former hedge fund manager, which did pair trading, I wish I had this. And then you can see how the two compare. And while we’re here, remember I told you there were other things I would show you. Okay? Can also find Stock alpha. So what’s NVIDIA’s Alpha?
(00:48:48):
And while we’re added, it’s beta. So does Nvidia have alpha? Is it statistically significant? It has been over the last three years. You can do this for any company. And while we’re at it, what is the sentiment for Apple? Any company, by the way, you just put in a ticker. If you want to know how to write a prompt, that will be ideal for our ai. Click above and it’ll write it for you. Apple has a lot of sentiment information, probably clicked the bad ticker. Sorry, I’ll give it 10 more seconds.
(00:50:10):
Okay, five more seconds. Okay, we’re not going to ask about Apple. Some of the slowness is not because of us, it’s because of chat. It’s back, it’s back to back. LLM. So what is the sentiment for a stock which has less news? Maybe I’ll give this one. Okay, so we have a bug. So we have a bug here. We’ll fix it. Alright, so that is the ai. And to get out of this, there’s a little X here. Again, you can go right back to trading machine. Okay? So that is the AI that’s not available to you, that is now available to you if you’re just a pattern finder member. This is live. This is live.
(00:51:01):
We got a little trouble with the way the screens were working. We have to fix that bug. But it’s in here. And any screen that is built into, you can build any screen you want, of course. But any screen that’s already built into pattern finder should already have the return of distribution dynamics already in there. So you can order buy it. There you go. So you’re welcome. It’s live. Knock yourselves out. I promised you I would deliver it and we did. If you want pattern finder for the low price of $28 a month before the price goes up to $84 a month. I’ll show you how to do that later. But I have to deal with trade machine members now. So I’m going to go to my development box and therefore I’m going to hide my URL and that’s how you do it. So let’s talk about that 14 day. This is trade machine by the way, for anyone who’s new. So this is what it looks like. Go to the today tab. This is on a development box, okay, I was talking to you guys if you remember about the, well a few strategies, but in particular I talked about the 14 day pre earnings calendar. So I want to look at the NASDAQ 100. I want to go here. It’s the 14 day diagonal I talked about. Let’s do it for Apple.
(00:52:19):
It will load, it’ll probably give me an error for the strategy. It will load anyway on the test box. Yep, don’t worry, it will work. Okay. Alright. So I’m going to show you the results. Actually since I’m here. Let’s do it for Apple and Amazon. We might as well look at a couple of figures and we’ll do it over five years. So this is the standard trade machine, 14 day pre earnings, diagonal trade that you guys all know. Okay? So I’m going to save this. I’m going to cut it. So I want you to see this. This is what this is. I’ve just taken those results so when I bring it back, you’ll know what it is. That was awesome.
(00:53:07):
Okay? That was not awesome. Yes. Okay. Alright. Now what I’m going to do, you cannot do this yet in trade machine. You’re going to be able to do it hopefully tomorrow. Definitely by Monday. Okay? So this is a development box. I’m going to say that again. If you’re a trade machine member and you’re looking at it and saying, I can’t do this right now, I know not yet soon days. So if you recall, all I did was I said the one year kurtosis was greater than one. I’m going to do the exact same backend, nothing else. I’m going to show you, remember the results I had before. So this thing, please don’t, lemme do that again. You guys are responsible for that.
(00:53:58):
Okay? So this is the old one. This is old. So the return for Apple was 42%. Now the return for Apple is 114%. Same trade. All I did is I avoided the times when the ketosis was not my favorite. Amazon was actually negative over the last five years. It was 12 trades, it only clicked, triggered two times in five years, but now the return is 32% as opposed to a negative 31%. Obviously I did this over thousands of back tests, but I’m just showing you an example of how you would do it in trade machine.
(00:54:35):
You can take any strategy, either one that you build yourself or one that you get from the scanner, something that someone else shares because all these are shareable. I went into the technical open and I added the one year skew. If you want, you could add the six month S skew. Sorry, kurtosis, you could add the one in six year skew. So return asymmetry is fancy name for skew and kurtosis is a fancy word for ness, right? So that’s how it works. That is the end of my formal presentation. So I can get out of this and go back to this. I told you from the current slide that I would do it in the platform and pattern finder. I told you that it would do it in the platform trade machine. And then there’s one last thing I told you, which I happen to remember, is this the pro ProGo nests object of desire.
(00:55:38):
Alright, now I get to share something with you. Oh, I should have shown you there’s that chat tool. That LLM tool is in trade machine as well. Sorry, it’s not just Pathfinder, it’s in trade machines. Okay? All this is, oops, that side. Okay, so now I want to talk to you about something else and then I’ll show you how you could, oh by the way, okay, if you guys pardon me, okay. If you want to get pattern finder for the low price pattern finder, okay, there you go. Pattern finder, vis, and there it is. Price is going to triple.
(00:56:43):
We’ll send a link. Same thing for trade machine. The price is going to triple, I think trade machine will be two or three or $400 a month once we add the kurtosis and skew. Until then you can get it for I think, I don’t know what the price is now. 89. 69. Alright? So this is a great opportunity for you to do such a thing. All right. So it’s protagonist’s, object of desire. All right? Now if you have honored me by bringing your young ones to the webinar, I’m going to ask, not yet, but in about two minutes I’m going to ask you to mute. Okay? This is what I want to ask you of traders. Okay? First of all, I’ve lived most of my life in California. I don’t right now, but in particular parts of ca. I lived in many parts of California.
(00:57:28):
I lived in la. So when I was in LA there was a lot of people who wanted to be actors, which is fine. There’s a point to this. It’s for trading. And I met a lot of people. They said they wanted to be actors. So you meet ’em and you meet ’em, and then the years go by and you see what they’re doing to try to reach their dreams. And it’s a hard dream to meet. And then you realize that it’s not that people want to be actors. There’s two groups of people. Everyone says they want to be an actor. So take the group of people that say they want to be an actor, but they don’t all want to be an actor. Some of them want to be an actor. And some of them like the idea of being an actor. And the difference is that people who want to be actors, they go be actors or at least they really bust their asses. It’s a really hard business. The people that like the idea simply like the idea. Now I want to talk to you about trading. I know a lot of people, thousands. I’ve met thousands of people over the years. Maybe 10,000, I don’t know. Obviously I haven’t counted trade shows and seminars in London, just everywhere. New York, people who said they want to be traders, that’s not true. Some of the people that say they want to be traders say they like the idea of being a trader.
(00:58:48):
You have to decide for yourself if you like the idea of being a trader or if you want to be a trader. And neither is the wrong choice. The only wrong choice is if you like the idea of being a trader and then you start trading because you’re going to lose your money. And I don’t want you to do that. That is my object of desire. So now I will ask people who have their little ones watching to mute. And you will know here, you’ll know that you can unmute when this goes back to full screen. So as of now, there should be no one under age. This is rated R. I have a saying for trade machine members and I actually did a webinar on it.
(00:59:37):
Trade how to write strategies down. The difference between wanting to be a trader and liking the idea of being a trader. And I cannot emphasize this anymore, and this is why I use this language. If you want to be a trader, you don’t just like the idea of being a trader, you’re going to need a plan. And your plan is not in your head. You write it the fuck down, write it down. If you want to be a trader, I don’t care if you’re using trade machine or pattern finder, if you want to be a trader, you don’t like the idea. Everyone likes the idea. We have movies about it. If you want to be a trader, you write it the fuck down, write it down. Write how much you’re risking on the trade. When you will get out the various decision trees that will occur because you that decides in the moment of excitement is a very bad version of you. You’re a much better version of you when you think about it first. So when the excited version of you is faced with uh oh, you’ve already written it down. You already know what you’re going to do. The you that’s calm is right by your side.
(01:01:05):
Don’t blow yourself out by trading because you like the idea of trading. Please don’t do that. Even if you, sure, like the idea of trading and maybe you’ll just use skew and kurtosis. No, write it down. Write it down. Okay, that’s it for me. Children can come back. Now I’m going to send, or someone should send a trade machine and pattern finder links out so that you can get the discounted price. It will triple. It might even go more. I think pattern finder will go to $84 a month. I might just take everything higher. I might take it from to 80 instead of 84 to like 684. And I might take trade machine is like 3000 a month. I haven’t decided yet because we now have hedge fund interest. I’m going to be starting a fund again. So I might actually have to block access to this. So I’m not going to do that to people who sign up now, but I’m going to kind of discourage people from signing up after. Okay?
Jason Hitchings (01:02:08):
Oh, sorry to interrupt real quick. I put the signup links in the chat.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:02:12):
Oh, okay,
(01:02:24):
That is here. I’m going to create a new, create a slide that’s pattern finder that substack, sorry, this trade machine. I’ll leave these up. The prices on these pages are going to change soon. I’m letting you know that now would be the time if you’re interested. And keep in mind, everything we offer here is, I mean, we do have annual subscriptions if you like, but it’s month to month. If you don’t like it, just cancel. Just don’t blow it, okay? And please don’t do it because you like the idea. Do it because you want to succeed. You want to be a trader, you want to be an actor. Hope you don’t. But if you do, God bless you. Okay? I’m now open to q and a. I’ll leave these links up, but I will turn on the camera so that you can actually see that I’m here. I not so good with the Zoom. Yeah. All right, so someone can go through qa. I can Mandy, you can Jay, you can you just, you guys let me know.
Amanda Kelley (01:03:40):
I can do it.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:03:41):
Okay.
Amanda Kelley (01:03:44):
We don’t have a lot, so we’ll try to go through this relatively quickly. As a CML PRO member, I will have access to these recommendations as stated in the email. Don’t see pattern finder or trade machine in my login page. I could have answered this one over, but I think it’s good to address with everyone.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:04:00):
Oh yeah. So CML Pro members do not get pattern finder for free or trade machine for free. You do get pattern finder for a discount, but what CML Pro members will get now talking about that, there’s going to be, first of all, that chat tool I just showed you, that AI I just showed you, that’s going to be in CML Pro. You’re going to get it. There’s going to be something else that’s going to be in there too. So it’s going to be an ai we’ve kind of written around earnings calls. You’ll be able to say, what did Microsoft CEO say about the partnership with open AI three quarters ago in the earnings call three quarters ago? And boom, it’ll show you. It’ll tell you that’s what CM L is going to get. CML is going to have their own webinar coming up soon. It’s the end of the quarter webinar. I don’t want to talk about CML Pro too much right now, but you guys, I haven’t addressed you today because I’m going to address you in your own private webinar, but if you want trade machine and pattern finder, you better do it soon. I can’t just give the data away,
Amanda Kelley (01:05:04):
Right? Is the one in skew and the first standard deviation?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:05:09):
Nope.
(01:05:14):
It’s far more complicated than that. Yeah, so here, there’s so many fakers in the world, so I’ll fix the color. I’ll fix the color of that. I think that works. That’s our background. Why don’t you read about it? Why don’t you verify it? Why don’t you look at articles posted by other people, not by me. I’m sure there’s a great article about me posting about myself. Just look at who you’re receiving your information from in general. I don’t just mean because of me. I mean in general. I think we could all do better with that, not just in finance. Why don’t we all pay attention as a collective sum who we’re getting our information from. It might make our lives better. Just a guess.
Amanda Kelley (01:06:05):
Okay. What is the average return for five day calendar with ptosis? Thank you.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:06:11):
I don’t know. You have to back test it. There’s 67 trillion different things I could have tested. I went with three that we have in the scanner. Knowing full well that trade machine members will crush the system in a matter of days, and I love you for it. You go do it.
Amanda Kelley (01:06:36):
Alright, clarify. The data in the webinar is from 14 day pre earnings calendar or diagonal Today. Page is diagonal.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:06:45):
It’s the same trade diagonal calendars. It’s a diagonal, which is also a calendar. That is just our bad for wording. That’s the same trade. Just different words. Good question. Thank you.
Amanda Kelley (01:07:04):
In trade machine option prices are not live. They are the prior night’s close price as such. How do you verify your returns? You’re describing as live pricing varies from closing price skew can be measured but not captured since prices are stale and not available.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:07:21):
So we we’re using 15 minutes before the close for all of our prices, and that is also when the skewing kurtosis is computed. But the skewing kurtosis, the one year and six months skewing kurtosis, they don’t change in a day. Doesn’t, in fact, I’m not even sure we compute it every day. I think we might compute it every Monday, Wednesday and Friday or something. So there’s no lookback bias at all. That strategy is, I mean it’s highly unoptimized. You could do far better, but it’s definitely, definitely has no survivorship or lookback bias. It’s very, very real.
Amanda Kelley (01:08:05):
When you’re reviewing results and stay adding ketosis and skew. Are you saying we would refine and do the strategy only on stocks that have technical pattern plus the kurtosis and SKU dynamics? In essence, an additional filter.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:08:20):
One could say that that’s one way to do it. That’s what I demonstrated. That doesn’t mean you have to do that, but yeah, you could also modify current strategies with skew and KET or one or the other, or you could create new strategies that just look at skew and kurtosis. So for example, that stock return that I showed you, the strategy was nothing. It was hold for a year. It was entirely based on skew and kurtosis. I didn’t even look at a single technical. So construct new strategies, add addendums, filters, the existing strategies, whatever you like.
Amanda Kelley (01:09:05):
What is the measurable outcome? One gets to go for a strategy or not with ketosis and tail of tails, for example, value of one or greater than one. So one, take those options trades.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:09:22):
So that’s what I showed in the results and I was using kurtosis greater than one. The one year kurtosis greater than one or the one year kurtosis greater than three. Well, I call that the tail of tails. There’s nothing magical about those numbers. If you start trying to refine your strategies too much, you’re kind of overfitting. So I’ve made sure not to do that. So I didn’t want to make a newly change to my skill significance. So in general, if you’re looking for baseline stuff, what I was showing was the one year ketosis greater than one or the one year ketosis greater than three, and I was showing the skew greater than zero or greater than one.
Amanda Kelley (01:10:07):
We’ve got another really good question here for pricing. Any price effect for current TM platinum members?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:10:14):
No, you’re all good. If you’re a current member or you become a member up until the next two days, all you will notice is that you have a lot more stuff that you can do. Your price won’t go up. So anyone that signs up today or tomorrow will get all of these upgrades for this price and the price is not going up. You kind of won the lottery as far as I’m concerned. You won the lottery so much that I had an argument with our board who did not want you to win the lottery.
Jason Hitchings (01:10:44):
I think the future price of platinum will go up alongside the others as well,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:10:49):
Right? Oh yeah. If someone wants platinum as of July 1st or whatever, then I think it will be. I know maybe it’ll be like seven, 8,000, something like that. I’m not sure. I haven’t decided yet, but yeah, three x four x, five x, yeah, so I’ll just write a note to you guys. Trade machine platinum is the same price as current, so same price as regular trade machine, but it’s an annual subscription and what do you get? You get the ability, oops, the ability to back, I’ll fix that to back test. What is it j? Do you remember? 500.
Amanda Kelley (01:11:34):
It’s 100.
Jason Hitchings (01:11:38):
I think we upgraded it from there to 500. It definitely will be. If it’s not 500 now, it definitely will be 500 after a major performance upgrade that’s coming through.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:11:47):
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We’re doing a major, yes. Jason is doing a massive performance upgrade with some very, very clever work with data and moving data on, and so if you’re a platinum member, you’re not paying any more than anyone else. You’re just paying it for a year. And of course there are no, you can cancel, but there’s no refunds for the year. You can cancel whenever you want for the next year. And the thing is, you all of a sudden have kind of this superpower trade machine. You actually have the trade machine that I have. So how did I do all these back tests? Well, I am a trade machine platinum member, so I can backtest the entire SP 500 in one go. So we’re doing an infrastructure upgrade, so that will go much faster so you don’t smash your head against the wall. So there has never been a better time to be a trade machine member or pet find members really, but a trade machine platinum member in particular because that price isn’t actually more than trade machine. It’s just annualized is. I think if you’re an options trader and you like to make sure what you’re doing makes sense is a really good deal.
Amanda Kelley (01:12:52):
Just to note, if you are interested in platinum right now, we do have a coupon code. You can email support to get that coupon code if you want to go ahead and upgrade to a platinum.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:13:09):
Super good at taking notes.
Amanda Kelley (01:13:12):
Thanks Sophia. You’re
Ophir Gottlieb (01:13:13):
Welcome.
Amanda Kelley (01:13:17):
Will pattern finder and trade machine have the utility that extends to futures or Forex trading? If so, will these enhancements apply to trading those markets?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:13:29):
As of right now, I don’t have plans to add Forex or commodities or futures. If something would be coming, it would be futures, right? I don’t see a great demand for commodities in four x, but I don’t want you to sign up and then kind be like, all right man, when are futures coming? I don’t want to promise that. I can promise you that in a day or two or three, you’ll have all of this stuff I just showed you. So I’m not sure about that. I think there is a way for us to get futures in where it’s kind of pay by the drink. So if you want it, you pay the exchange fee, we will just do a pass through basically like whatever, it’s $87, whatever the exchange fee. We’ll just say, Hey, you go sign a contract with the CME, but that’s not soon,
Amanda Kelley (01:14:18):
Right? Does pattern finder or trade machine provide inside bar setups last one day in US Stock exchange flags 1D. Penance 1D?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:14:30):
No. So the strategies we have, I guess I could do pattern finder, select pattern finder demo. You can look at intraday charts. So for example, I don’t know, let’s do a three month chart looking at 15 minute candles. What we’re not going to do, we’ve got a little bit. Yeah, so let’s look at the tool tip. Let’s see. That’s 10, 15, 10 30. So this is 15 minute, yeah, 15 minute candles. We don’t have patterns on these yet. So in other words, what does patterns mean? I mean this, if we go all this stuff, we were going to do that and then we started asking people and the demand was so small we stopped. But no, to answer your question, you can see it, but we don’t put on patterns. You can definitely see the skewing ketosis for a company. I mean, that doesn’t change, but we aren’t drawing penance and things like that, but we certainly do have intraday charts. Let’s do a five day, one minute bar, whatever minute. One day, one minute bar here. Okay.
Amanda Kelley (01:15:52):
All right. Is there a guide page that tells us how to recognize a favorable skew in ketosis?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:15:59):
I think there definitely will be. So there’s a learn tab, right? Isn’t there somewhere?
Amanda Kelley (01:16:05):
It’s help on pattern
Ophir Gottlieb (01:16:06):
Finder. Oh yeah, but my menu is covering it. Okay, here, so you want to help. This is for trade machine two, there’s a whole thing here. Mandy’s in charge of it. And so we’ll have skew and proptosis. We’ll have this video there, by the way. So the part, it’ll be broken apart, the definitions, things like that. So yes, there’s a lot of help here and trade machine has even more help. So it’s the learn tab in both. Let me go to trade machine.com and then learn tab, same thing. And you can just say, here’s a good one, I wonder if this works. Pre earnings. Oh, there we go. Pre earnings momentum with a technical safety valve, technical details, things like that. So you can start seeing things like that. So you can just start looking at what these screens do. The scans they’re called scans and trade machine. They’re called screens and pattern. Yeah, lots and lots and lots of stuff. Do we have anything in here for that? I think we do ptosis.
Amanda Kelley (01:17:18):
I don’t think it’s populated yet.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:17:20):
Okay, sure.
Amanda Kelley (01:17:22):
But it will be tomorrow.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:17:23):
There you go.
Amanda Kelley (01:17:26):
Alright. May I know what the best range values for ketosis and tail of tails greater than that one can look for us stock screenings.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:17:36):
So for me, I didn’t do a grid search for the best, right? This is what I did. What I did was the proptosis let’s for one year, one year greater than one or greater than three, right? And I did skew six months. Actually it’s in the slide six month. I think I did greater than one and the skew one year two, I guess we could see, hold on, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. No, that’s option. It’s not stuck. Yep. Okay. It was ketosis one year greater than three skew, six month greater than one and skew one year greater than two. I was red.
Amanda Kelley (01:18:50):
Will this be available from the trade machine pro menu? Yes, it will. Yes,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:18:55):
Absolutely.
Amanda Kelley (01:18:58):
How can I use pattern finder or trade machine for day trading options please, to improve average returns specifically.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:19:06):
So day trading options can’t, you can’t use trade machine. It goes day by day, not intraday. You can use pattern finder for intraday bars, one minute bars, 15 minute bars.
(01:19:18):
I’m not a huge fan of day trading. I don’t mind two or three day trades, but intraday day trading, the tools are okay. Pattern finder’s okay with that because of the charting and the skew and kurtosis, it’s always going to push the S in your favor, but I can’t say that we have screens or scans exactly for that. There’s a couple things. So okay, if you go into pattern finder and you go into, these are a couple screens, here you go, let the market be open for an hour, okay? Then you go to bullish or bearish volume on the day we extrapolate the volume that’s coming, and so we find stocks that are having really unusual bullish or bearish volume depends on the screen you have and you can start picking those off intraday. So an hour into the market, it’s actually a half an hour into the market.
(01:20:09):
I would just wait an hour to let, because the first half an hour of trading, sometimes there’s a block trade and it is actually not going to be a busy day for the stock, but this is how you would do it. I don’t know what this stock did today, but yeah, so here’s what this, yeah, so we probably noticed, let’s see, 9 38. Okay, so around here I would’ve looked, right? So you see where the crosses and then the stock kind of went on one of these, right? So would’ve picked up the stock around here. So on 17, and then right around here you would’ve started seeing a consolidation movement. So that that’s how you can do it. It’s those two screens in particular heavy. Make sure it says on the day, on the day, bearish volume on the day. Both volume on that is intraday on trp. So yeah, this one would’ve been a nothing. You probably would’ve gotten short around here and then it close here. So well actually, I guess you might’ve, if you would’ve noticed this consolidation, you might’ve find yourself a nice little short here. But that’s those two in pattern finder would be the, it’s under RS and technicals this category and it’s bearish volume on the day and bullish on the day. That is intraday. That’s how I would use it. That’s the best that we got for that.
Amanda Kelley (01:21:32):
How do we know that this is a good start date for the bullish strategy to buy stock?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:21:39):
How do we know today is I have no reason to believe that I found an unusual day to start a back test and the back test I took that I showed you here should probably bookmark this slide. This it? Nope, nope, nope. Yep. Okay. So what this strategy did, just to be clear what these returns are, I started on June 30th, 2018. I said, okay, s and p 500, who of you has this, this and this? And 17 of them raised their hands. I was like, I’m going to get along you for a year. And then the next day I said, okay, s and p 500 guys, which one of you have it now? And two of them raised their hand. I said, I’m going to get along you for a year. And then I asked them the next day. So there was no thought process as to, is today a good day? I waited for the dynamics to hit at any time and trade machine said that stock that day get long. There’s no reason to believe one day is better or worse than the other. I like this way of doing a back test because it takes away any bias I might have maybe, I think July is bad, but January is good, which tends to be the case. Anyway, I didn’t do that. It was very rules-based. It said if these three things are met, I’m long.
Amanda Kelley (01:23:06):
Okay, what is kurtosis? I understand skew. Do you have other videos? I’m an early user of both pattern finder and trade machine.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:23:16):
Yeah, so kurtosis is the thickness of the tail. So on the blue one, the ketosis is very small, right? The thickness of this tail, so the amount of data underneath, so between the horizontal axis and the blue line, that would be the kurtosis, the space, the size of the tail, the orange one or whatever color this is to you can see it’s much, much larger. Much larger. So you can definitely go online and say, what is sku? What is kurtosis? You seem to understand sku. So what is kurtosis and get more familiar with it. We’re going to put stuff in the learn tab, but it’s basically, it’s the tail likeness, the fat tail, the tail thickness if you like. And what that represents is the frequency of tail events. If something has a large ketosis, it has a larger frequency of events of low probability events, there’s a higher probability of low probability events.
Amanda Kelley (01:24:27):
I think the next one we already answered, but how does this new capability affect CMO Pro?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:24:35):
Well, CML Pro will have that same chat tool. First of all, you’re also going to get far more, far more than that. But someone did ask this in community for female pro, you could make an argument if there’s 16 topics and eight, I’m just making something up, eight of them have skew dynamics and kurtosis dynamics that match what I showed in the back test. And eight, don’t. Maybe you only own those eight. That’s not what we’re going to do. But you could definitely do it that way for sure. You can definitely take that list and start vetting it. Yes, and you can find out what it is, even though you don’t have it in this CML Pro because you’re going to have this exact thing, right? Compare globally, do the market and then you would look at the one year, not the three and a half year, although you could look at the three and a half year. Alright, chat GT is just checking right now. Fine.
(01:25:47):
That’s the only problem we have. We rely a little bit on chat. GPT and OpenAI does not take care of 3.5, and so sometimes you just get choked. It just sucks. Which is, by the way, why it’s in our screener and our scanners. We don’t okay there. So here’s the one year ketosis. You could start looking at it. Remember, it’s the difference between these two. So it’s very fat tailed to the upside, right? 11 minus five and its skew is positive. So 2.5 plus negative 1.75. So global E as of right now does satisfy some of those requirements. For example, that’s how you would do it in CL, but that’s coming in July or something. Just give me a second. Okay, any other questions?
Amanda Kelley (01:26:51):
Oh yeah, there’s more
Ophir Gottlieb (01:26:54):
CJ left.
Amanda Kelley (01:26:56):
So these skew and kurtosis features are available for current trade machine members? Yes, they are.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:27:02):
Yeah. The only thing you have to do to get this is don’t cancel. That’s it. It’s coming. It’ll be, I don’t know, I don’t have a promise Tomorrow morning, I have a feeling it’ll be tomorrow morning, but July 3rd it’ll be in there and it’ll be exactly as I showed you. You go into technical opens and you’ll see those four. So I can, should I show again?
Amanda Kelley (01:27:21):
Yeah, absolutely.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:27:23):
Let me F 11 control tab. Tab, yeah, so you’ll see these four new technical, okay, sorry. You’ll go to technical open, which is right here, technical open, and then in there, all of a sudden you’ll see these four extras. Okay, not yet. Tomorrow or Monday, something it’s coming. And remember, we’re going to start populating. It won’t be immediate. We’re going to start populating the learn tab with all these results and you can go back and what did no fear say and what was working? Don’t worry, you’re not meant to memorize this. That’s a crazy request. I would never request it of you.
Amanda Kelley (01:28:07):
Alright, how does the chat GPT feature do with predicting future stock prices?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:28:14):
So right now, chat, GPT on its own is terrible, right? That’s why you need domain expertise. I have a very, very strong feeling about chat GPT, open ai, not open ai, but LLM. So it is, I said it on tv, but I’ll just forget how, I’ll just repeat it. You have to respect and understand both what chat GPT and LLMs in particular, but really chat GPT are exceptionally good at and it is exceptionally good at some things. Truly mind boggling, mind boggling. And then you have to respect and understand what it is not truly exceptional at what it is exceptional at. In particular. Two things. It is remarkably good, just remarkably good at understanding the context of something text-based. It’s just stunning. It just blows my mind. They can just understand almost anything. It’s also good to exceptional. Depends on how lucky you get at writing code. So what’s going to happen is, this is going to answer your question, how is chat GPT going to help me make money? First of all, we’re showing you, but it wasn’t all chat GPT, and this is why we had to do it this way.
(01:29:37):
Chat GPT will allow the creation of products, digital products. So that’s senior developers, but also junior developers and just citizen developers. Just people who can’t code to make product. Product is going to increase tenfold a hundred fold or a thousand fold, maybe 10,000 fold. Maybe product may increase 1000000%. That would surprise me on the tail tail. But it’s possible what will not increase is the number of domain experts. In fact, you could make an argument that the number of domain experts will shrink. And so you’re going to have let’s say a hundred x more product, but the number of products that are valuable that add utility, it’s not just in finance. I’m talking broadly. Utility useful in some way is not going to go up. But if the number that are useful doesn’t go up, but the number of products goes up, the signal to noise, the signal being those with utility and noise being things without the signal to noise is going to drop. So there’s going to be a huge amount of noise. It’s going to be very hard to find things that are useful not just in finance. So how do people who don’t want to code but want to make money off people who have produced good things through chat GPT, how do you find those? You need to find domain expertise. What chat GPT does not have is domain expertise. Certainly not in finance. That’s why I said read this.
(01:31:11):
How do you make money with chat GPT? You rely on people with domain expertise that also happen to have just the miracle of miracles. The luck of luck happened to be technically oriented, happened to be senior developers by the way, happened to be mathematicians by the way, happened to be finance experts after worked in the field for 25 years institutionally, by the way. Then you throw Chachi PT into it. Oh my god, we come up with stuff like this. This was impossible before. So we will be coming out with other models, predictive models, which will lean some on chat GPT mostly on our domain expertise, but it will take the things that chat GPT does that are exceptionally good and really, really optimize them. Like lean on it and a heavy that will be coming to trade machine and pattern finder that might cause another price increase.
(01:32:07):
I’m not saying it’s going to happen, it’s not beyond the scope of reality for me that this product, these products move to five or 10,000 a month and we’re just not selling to retail. I don’t know. But I do know that if you’re in right now, good for you man. You got it. You got it. If you’re paying $28 a month and it’s now 5,000 a month, you know what I think that is? I think it’s a good trade. You deserve it. Big time. So we are going to keep going. I would not say this is the end. I would not even say this is the beginning. I would say this is the beginning of the beginning of the beginning. It’s the beginning. Just the start of the beginning of the beginning of what we’re going to do. So it’s a good time to be in the CML family, both as an employee, a shareholder, and a customer in my opinion. But I’m the protagonist in my life. So what do I know?
Amanda Kelley (01:33:14):
Alright, may I know, may know. When you do avoid trades based on kurtosis and Tale of Tails value,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:33:25):
Read it. Sorry again, Mandy,
Amanda Kelley (01:33:27):
Sorry. When do you avoid trades based on kurtosis and T scales value?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:33:33):
So I generally set filters. What I’ve been learning is I’ve been setting filters for when I want to do something, but it’s an interesting question, which is kind of reverse. Okay, that’s when I would qualify. But if you’re willing to take on a few more trades, but you want to really want to know when you disqualify, I would disqualify bullish trades if skew was negative or if the ketosis was negative above zero is fine. I dunno. So that’s it for long-term investments. I got to tell you guys, still to this day, you know me, man, it’s really about talking to the CEO, talking to experts that it’s really what CML PRO is. Honestly, I’m not looking at skew and kurtosis for CML Pro. You can. I’m not telling you you can’t, but the most money I’ve made, well that’s not really fair. So when it comes to long-term trading, I don’t use it. How to use it as a filter for trades to avoid. If you’re bullish, probably want to avoid negative skews and negative ketosis. Also, if you’re looking for bearish trades, that’s what you want. So you want to avoid the positive skew and positive ketosis. Now as a great time to do pair trading, this is a very, very good time to do parar.
Amanda Kelley (01:34:48):
Will the today tab with active triggers be modified to return signals with skew and ketosis enhancement
Ophir Gottlieb (01:34:54):
At some point probably it’s not, not urgent, but I see where you’re going. And it occurred to me too a while ago, I was like, really? The Zab should have that too. So probably, probably for now, I would just set alerts yourself. So in trade machine, if those don’t know, you can set your own alerts, infinite alerts, don’t try it, don’t try Infinite. But we have people have five, 10, 15,000 alerts. So you can set your, so maybe I should just show how to do that. So let’s say you like, I’m just going to do, I’m going to pretend don’t do what I’m doing. This is just, okay, let’s say I like the 14 day diagonal and I like it in Apple and I think, gosh, this is a good trip.
(01:35:43):
It’s going to choke on the customer. Oh, it won’t choke. This is production. This is just because people are on it right now. This is great. So let’s say I like the straight you go to ad alert, it’s already pure ticker Apple 14 days before earnings. The stock has to be above the 50 day moving average. That’s my email address. I put my phone number and then I would say, okay, add it, add this alert. Oh, maybe I’ll write myself a note. This is the 14 day free earnings calendar and you click add alert, and now I’m going to get an email the next time Apple is 14 days before earnings, 14 day before earnings, and the stock is above 50 day moving average. I’m going to get an email how to put my phone number. I want to get email and a text message, but that was a different question. I just wanted you to show that that’s possible. You can do that in pattern finder too.
Amanda Kelley (01:36:40):
To what extent does this work with the SPX,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:36:44):
The index itself? Probably pretty well. I mean if it works with the constituents, why would it not? I’ll run one, so hold on, I have to hide this from you. So understand under strict orders from technology, no, no, that’s not what I wanted. I didn’t want you to do that. Not what I wanted. That’s what I wanted. Oh yeah, right. Let’s see if it chokes and it’s the right one. Let’s see, technical open. Oh, stop me. Technical open. I got it. Okay, good. So let’s do that. Let’s just do the SPY. I got it. Thanks. Let’s just buy the SPYI got it. Nothing special. We’ll do, oh no, let’s just, oh, that’s fine. Yeah, we’ll do a technical open. We’ll only buy the SPY when the SPY. Oh, that won’t work. Let’s do Pride wm Russell 2000, or actually the QQQ. Got it. Okay, sorry. Now let’s only do it when the QQQ has positive kurtosis and when it has positive skew,
(01:38:24):
And let’s do it. Let’s close the trade after a year and then reopen it if it exists, and we’ll do it from, we don’t have to watch this. I’ll revisit this before the end, however, I’m just curious. Okay, and then we’ll open it immediately. Why is it doing that? Oh, interesting. Okay, so the average return per year was 28.7% and let’s take out the technical open. Let’s just say just do it a yearly trade in the QQQ, just blah, it triples the return in the queues. So great question. Thanks. I would’ve used that in the webinar, the five years. Let’s do that. Sorry. Immediately average return. So 19% total return, 58%. And then let’s do it like this. Sorry. I’m sure this is super fascinating to people who aren’t trade machine members. Keep going. Mandy, I can answer while I’m pumping this out.
Amanda Kelley (01:39:45):
Okay, I think we also answered this one. Can you briefly touch on CML Pro Future Upgrade?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:39:53):
Yeah, let me wait for the webinar. So the webinar in general, I will do what I did here and the webinar is coming in a week or two weeks.
Amanda Kelley (01:40:06):
Okay, I think we also answered this one. Will the today page trades be updated to include these new capabilities? Yes, probably eventually,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:40:15):
Right? Well said.
Amanda Kelley (01:40:21):
What about Pattern Finder users that add Trade Machine?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:40:26):
If you’re a Pattern finder member to add trade machine, then Mandy’s going to give you a discount on your trade machine. I’m sorry, on your pattern finder.
Amanda Kelley (01:40:32):
Yes. So you get an additional discount on Pattern Finder for having a trade machine subscription.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:40:38):
If you’re a trade machine member, pattern finder is $11.
Amanda Kelley (01:40:42):
So
Ophir Gottlieb (01:40:43):
If you have both and you didn’t know that
Amanda Kelley (01:40:45):
Email support, I’ll take care of you. This is a great question. Does Trade Machine already have all the bells and whistles of Pattern Finder or do you need to get Pattern Finder? It does not have all the bells and whistles of Pattern Finder,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:41:07):
Right? What Pattern Finder has that trade machine doesn’t is the screener. So all these screens, it’s just different because these aren’t back tested. So it doesn’t have all the fundamental analysis, the volume analysis, this relative strength, things like that. What Pattern Finder does have, what Pattern Finder does have is the create tab, which has pattern finder charts. So hypothetically this will load. So that’s pattern finder charts. It doesn’t have all of the support resistance and congestion. It does have support resistance. Sorry. Oh,
Amanda Kelley (01:41:51):
It does have support resistance.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:41:53):
Yeah, right. It doesn’t have, that’s supposed to be a cup. Those are supposed to be sending bases. Our drawing is a little off, but it doesn’t have the congestion lines. So it certainly has some of pattern finder, but that’s why it’s only $11 for Pattern Finder if you’re a trade machine member. We’re not trying to compound your costs here, but I
Amanda Kelley (01:42:11):
Imagine
Ophir Gottlieb (01:42:12):
I was going to say, I can imagine at some point an all in one product. Oh, by the way, here’s that Ask GPT is now live on Trade Machine? Yep. Oh, I just logged out. Yeah, here it is. If you’re a trade machine member, you now got this. So compare, well here, compare Apple to the market, what’s going to choke? Because chat T is probably dumb, but you got it now. Oh boom, it worked. Okay, now you got it in Trade Machine. We still haven’t given you kurtosis and KU for back testing yet. That’s coming in a sec. But you now have Ask GPT and Trade Machine. Good.
Amanda Kelley (01:42:47):
And for those of you that have Trade Machine want to add Pattern Finder, you could email support. We can get you a coupon code for the signup process. Also, if you have any questions, you can always email support and we can address that for you before you sign up. Yeah,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:43:05):
Yeah. So you think about if you’re a pattern fin member and realize you want a trade machine, remember you’re going to get a discount. I mean you’re going to get Trade machine for the cost that it is, but then you’re going to get a discount down to $11 for pattern.
Amanda Kelley (01:43:18):
What is the new price for current subscribers to Pattern finder and trade machine? You’re not going to have it at price increase,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:43:24):
Right? Current members are not going to see a price increase. So this is a webinar for two groups of people, current members. I’m letting you know, look what you have or what you’re about to have. This is awesome and why it matters. It’s also a webinar for people who are not members. I’m saying, look how awesome this is. You can get it. Also, I’m letting you know ahead of time so I don’t get complaints on social media when you’re like, oh my God, the price went up threefold. I wish I would’ve known then You weren’t listening then You’re what I said about the actors. You like the idea of being a trader. If you want to be a trader and you, you don’t have to want this, but if you want this and you want to be a trader, you don’t like the idea of being a trader, then you’re going to hear what I’m saying. You’ll be like, oh dude, the price is going to triple. If I want this, I should do this. And if you don’t like it, you can cancel in a month.
Amanda Kelley (01:44:15):
Perfect answer oer. Next question. Is there a coupon for Pattern Finder if you’re a trade Machine Pro subscriber? Yes. There is a coupon for Pattern Finder and you can email support to get that.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:44:29):
See, this is the all inclusive slide.
Amanda Kelley (01:44:34):
It really is. You did a great job. Do you have a link to that seminar? Do you remember what you were discussing in phe?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:44:42):
Yeah. Yeah, it was the trading one. I absolutely do. I think it’s on the learned tab. I don’t know why that happened. It should be the learned tab. Yeah, good job. It was called, I think it was just called the Option Trading webinar.
Amanda Kelley (01:45:00):
Oh, are we the Option speculation webinar?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:45:03):
Yeah, right here. Thank you. Yes. So if you’re a trade machine member, here you go. Oh yeah, but I shouldn’t show you the password. It’s password. Oops.
Amanda Kelley (01:45:13):
If you can’t find it in the learn tab email support, I can get you a link.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:45:19):
It’s the Option Speculation Webinar. Webinar. Yeah, so just do that. Okay. Yes, absolutely. It’s a really cool webinar I think. I’m not saying I was good in it, I’m just saying it’s a cool way to see trades progress and of course I’m showing successful trades because I’m showing you a trade that was like my plan was to stop out at 50% and then one day it stops out at 50% and I can’t give a webinar on that. So
Amanda Kelley (01:45:46):
Are there any benefits for people who already have trade machine and Pattern finder members from day one?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:45:54):
Yes. You’re getting an upgrade, which takes your product to several thousand a year and you’re not paying anything for it.
Amanda Kelley (01:46:03):
Exactly. Next question we’ve already discussed. Can you comment briefly on the upcoming changes CML Pro? We are going to have another webinar in the coming weeks for that to be on the lookout.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:46:19):
That’s awesome stuff for that. With the earnings stuff, it’s going to be very cool. I’m actually very excited about that too. I’m excited about everything we can do with chat GPT, just to tell you the truth,
Amanda Kelley (01:46:29):
He is very excited. Do CML pro subscribers get better pricing? And I’m assuming they mean on trade machine or pattern finder?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:46:40):
Definitely on pattern finder. Yeah,
Amanda Kelley (01:46:44):
Exactly. Email support if you have more questions on that,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:46:47):
Absolutely you do.
Amanda Kelley (01:46:50):
I am a happy pattern finder customer. What would be the advantage to upgrading the trade machine?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:46:56):
So this is one that you’d have to ask yourself, but are you an options trader? Do you want to be an options trader? So if not, you could say there’s a value to trade. I mean there is value to trade machine because you can do back tests for option trades if you do that and that’s all you do. Don’t tell anyone I told you to do this, but I would say sign up for a month back, test your brains out and then cancel. So you’ll pay for one month, it’s fine and then cancel. Unless you just fall in love with it. But just be back. I’m going to backtest my brains out and I’m going to write it down and then I’m going to cancel trade machine. If you’re an options trader, yeah, you got to get trade machine, in my opinion. Of course. It’s my opinion. I’m not saying you got to. I’m saying in my opinion. So then there’s a lot of value.
(01:47:45):
I think I just showed it, but even before then, I remember I showed the fade, the dip strategy. We’ve had that for a long time and that’s before we even had skewing kurtosis. Trade machine has great value even before this. And by the way, that’s why we’re going to offer trade machine to people. If they don’t want the skewing kurtosis for the same price, it’s fine. You don’t have to want to. It’s okay with me. I just can’t give it away for free. I’m now under the pressure of even the CEO has to answer people.
Amanda Kelley (01:48:14):
Alright, can we invite friends to subscribe?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:48:18):
You can. Yeah. We should have some sort of discount. I can’t think of it right now, but we’ll be creative. If you email Mandy and think of something creative, the good chance we’ll prove it.
Amanda Kelley (01:48:34):
Email me. I’ll annoy a fear with it.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:48:39):
I just get the same question there you go.
Amanda Kelley (01:48:44):
In trade machine, there’s a technical trigger in the last X day stock move up. Why percent or more not quite grasping fundamentally how kurtosis and SKU is different.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:48:56):
Oh, so SKU and kurtosis both are return distribution characteristics. They look at the overall return. If you look at it by definition, they look at the overall return of the stock over six months in a year. It’s not about the last five days. It’s about this continuous behavior of the stock, which we are, if you’re a backtester, you’re betting or speculating on will repeat in some predictable manner. What we’re showing is not actually skewing kurtosis. It’s a bit more involved than that. In other words, you couldn’t ask chat GPT to code this skew and ketosis up for you. It just wouldn’t conceive of such a possibility. Not yet. At least Jesus, sorry. No offense. But yeah, it looks at the entire distribution, not just five days. A stock could have really ugly skew and have five days where there’s a big tail up because of an earnings move. I don’t know. I don’t want to bet on, okay, that period’s over. Pretend it’s not a Martingale. I wouldn’t bet that that’s going to change the dynamics. It could, but I would still look at the bad kurtosis and SKU
Amanda Kelley (01:50:21):
Upgrade price from CML Pro to pattern finder. I believe the discount on that is it’s $20 off the normal price of 48. So it’s also $28. I
Ophir Gottlieb (01:50:33):
Think that’s
Amanda Kelley (01:50:34):
With CML Pro.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:50:36):
Yeah. If you are a current CML Pro member or when we release the upgrade for CML Pro, it is no hurry, but we’re going to have the same spiel, which is like, look, the price is going to go up people who aren’t members. If you’re in, then you have access to this data. Then I don’t have to charge you an arm and a leg to get access to it in Pattern Finder in Trade machine. But if you’re not a member, then I do. This is actually quite organized and defined by the board. So these are the rules I have to follow or the CEO can get fired. Can you imagine that?
Amanda Kelley (01:51:11):
If I don’t wish to do options, then Pattern Finder would be the one for stock trading. Correct?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:51:16):
A hundred percent. A hundred percent. Don’t spend the money on Trade Machine yet or ever. If you’re not options go with Pattern Finder. It’s less expensive and it’ll fulfill your needs. Right.
Amanda Kelley (01:51:33):
Training on this looks great, but I’m needing more education to do this.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:51:37):
Yeah, I feel like I need to do more webinars for trade machine members and Pattern Finder members. So I’ve been doing a lot with everyone, so I think I’m going to do more of that. So I think that there will be more webinars where we can really just talk about stuff like, all right, what’s going on? Kind of like the old days. So I know there’s no old days of Pattern Finder, but there’s old days of Trade machine that’s been around since 2015 and we used to chat quite a bit. We meaning members also. It’s a really good time to remind people. Mandy, we have, there’s community. So if you’re a member of Pattern, sorry, yes, pattern finder, trade Machine or C pro, you go into community, you have to agree to our code of conduct every time you log in. If you’re a trade machine member, you’ll be in the trade machine tab and you ask questions.
(01:52:28):
There are people post, this isn’t me, and people post charts. I’m in there, we’re talking. So it’s a great community. We’re upgrading community to be a mobile app, to be 55 times faster. It’s going to be just our community is just amazing and it’s going to be so much stronger when you don’t have to wait three seconds to post things because three seconds is a long time in today’s world. I get it. I’m with you. So if you have questions, some of the best educators I’ve seen, if I do say so myself, are in community, they will answer your questions hardcore.
Amanda Kelley (01:53:05):
Yes, we have some really, really great knowledgeable people in community and what’s even better is they’re actually willing to share their knowledge. So that’s definitely a resource that you should take advantage of. Plus we have a lot of resources on the Learn tab and train machine help tab for Pattern Finder. And those things are growing on a regular basis. So we’re posting new things and as we do more webinars, those will go to those sections for people to review at a later time.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:53:42):
Can community is awesome. Just by the way, if you’re wondering if you’re a member, you’re like, I haven’t checked out community. It’s kind of no skin off my back. I guess it’s a little skin off my back. But the cancel rate for members on either product who are in community versus not community is just profound or different. People who are in community that have one 10th the cancel rate, it’s just insane. And people who don’t ever join community, the cancel rates higher. And that’s probably because why would you cancel something that helps you trading because you’re not making money trading? That’s a good reason. Well, it doesn’t have to be done in a vacuum. I’m in there. Even if you just want to talk to me, I’m in there nonstop. And if you don’t want to talk to me, there’s other people in there nonstop, really good traders.
Amanda Kelley (01:54:27):
It adds a lot of value to what you’re getting. It’s not something that you can find elsewhere. Nope. It’s something very unique. So definitely taking advantage of
Ophir Gottlieb (01:54:37):
It’s, it’s joyous.
Amanda Kelley (01:54:39):
And if you need help getting in there, let me know. I will get you started.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:54:44):
If you’re a pattern finder member, since we’re talking about it, you would just go here, you go to community right here, this button.
Amanda Kelley (01:54:52):
And also it is important to note that the pattern finder community and the trade machine community are actually the same. We decided that you’re all traders. We put you all in the same kind of bucket
Ophir Gottlieb (01:55:04):
There, right? And then CML PRO has its own because we can’t expose topics.
Amanda Kelley (01:55:08):
Yes. But you actually end up getting more value out of it because you get to see some of the things that people are doing in the other platforms.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:55:16):
Yep, for sure. I think trade machine members and Pattern Finder members have been the best sellers of trade machine and pattern finder to members of the other product. Just in community. What’s that like? That’s Pattern finder. That’s CML. Oh,
Amanda Kelley (01:55:33):
All right. Is there a way to use pattern finder for day trading?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:55:39):
I think I answered that. Yeah. So I would use those two screens that I talked about. The heavy buying and heavy selling volume on the day. Make sure it says on the day, right, on the day, on the day.
Amanda Kelley (01:55:51):
And then there are the minute, 15 minute and daily candles. Candles and hourly. Yep. Well, kurtosis and SKU improve all strategies and trade machine. Will we get guidance on which ones are best and most improved?
Ophir Gottlieb (01:56:12):
Yeah, I mean eventually I’ll have time to kind of go through each one. You can too. Certainly if you’re a platinum member, you can just rip through it. Actually, if you’re platinum member and you find results, can you just share in community, save me any trouble. But I have looked at the most common things people do are these pre earnings ones. I looked at the pre earnings calendars, sell input spreads is very, very popular in trade machine. So my version of that is fade the dip, which is just selling a put spread, but with certain technical conditions. I added Proptosis and you right, you can look. So the most common ones I’ve covered. And then I buy the Dip by the Dip Bollinger, which is very common, but you can try it on anything. Also, I just want to remind you that you can also do it for bearer strategies. You can look for skew leaning the other way, things like that. Just don’t get caught up on only being bullish. I think the market has proven that you should mostly be bullish, but you shouldn’t only be bullish.
Amanda Kelley (01:57:16):
Right? A huge fan of the tech. It’s great value. What books do you recommend to read and who are you a fan of in the industry, regardless of if you follow their beliefs or trades, just somebody you admire.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:57:29):
So books are options, which I’m still just named Sheldon Berg, A reader. What’s options? Pricing and Volatility, something like that. Option and volatility pricing, something like that.
Amanda Kelley (01:57:41):
Sheldon, I have it noted somewhere. You,
Ophir Gottlieb (01:57:44):
Sorry, Sheldon Berg. Sorry, Sheldon. Yes.
Amanda Kelley (01:57:47):
But I do have the name of the book noted in my notes, so if anybody wants it.
Ophir Gottlieb (01:57:52):
Yeah. And then I admire a lot of people in finance. So some people that I’ve learned from, not that person like Ray Dalio at times, believe it or not. Carl Icahn, sometimes Warren Buffett. I don’t agree with everything they say, but some things I think we have some very strong economists, Lizanne, Lizanne Saunders at Schwab’s, really good with macro and context. There’s a gentleman on Twitter, macro elf, he doesn’t know me from Adam. So there’s a lot of other people I respect and talk to. Very, very, my trader chat. But in a weird way, I can’t share with you the people that have impacted me the most because it’s actually too personal of it. I don’t have their permission. Whereas, as opposed to just talking colloquially about people who are famous is Ray Dalio doesn’t know who I am. All I found doesn’t know who I am.
(01:59:08):
So yeah, I admire a lot of people. A lot of the people I admire, I disagree with most of the time, but I just, for those of you that are female pro members, the way you have facts A, B, and C from facts A, B, and C, you do analysis A, B, and C. And from analysis A, B, and C, you make conclusions A, B, and C. If you present your thought process as facts A, B, and C, analysis A, B, and C, conclusions A, B, and C, that even if I disagree with you or someone disagrees with me vehemently, you’re getting great value from my opinion, or I’m getting great value from their opinion because I’m seeing their thought process. I’m saying, okay, facts A, B, and C, we should all agree with let’s go fact. And then they start doing analysis A, B, and C and conclusion A, B, and C.
(01:59:54):
And I say, okay, okay. I disagree with how they connected that fact, that analysis. But it’s super helpful to see the reverse side. So look for people that have organized thought processes because people have organized thought processes, roughly speaking, speak like that. Here’s some facts. A, B, C, here’s some analysis. A, B, C, inclusion. That’s how this webinar just started, right? I said, I’m going to teach you about things which are facts. This is what kurtosis is, this is what skew is, this is what tail risk is. I be very clear. I’ve just given you facts. I haven’t given you any motivation. They say, now I’m going to motivate you. So analysis a bbc, and then I’m going to show you the results with the conclusions, A, B, C. So people like that I become very intellectually attracted to.
Amanda Kelley (02:00:45):
Okay. Next is, can you please explain using kurtosis and skew regarding volatility burst option, trade long strangles like you did in the community?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:00:57):
Yeah. So hypothetically, the volatility burst. I always call it volatility burst, but we don’t call it volatility burst. So then I confuse people. Let me go to control. I’m going to say 50 50. This is the right one. Hold on.
(02:01:20):
Yes, yes. Okay. So the volatility burst is actually called long strangle. It’s a never trade earning strategy. I feel like we should put these in alphabetical order. I. Is that right? Oh, no, that’s not it. Oh, technical long circles. Right. Okay. So hypothetically, this is a trade where you would want really large kurtosis of the skew and kind of either way would be okay. I would probably go with the negative kind, probably. I’m not going to do the technical open because I’m exposing a trade machine strategy, and that’s not fair. Once I do that, you’re going to see what the trigger is that’s doing this. But yes, maybe look for tail of tails on the downside, like kurtosis that’s negative three or lower, for example. I didn’t look at it, but just for example, things like that. So this trade in particular really wants a big move or you’re going to have to eat all that theta. So that’s a good thing to look for. So I would look for tail of tails, how about that? And tail of tails means very large ketosis, either very large negative or very large positive.
Amanda Kelley (02:02:58):
We’ve answered this upgrade price from CML Pro to pattern finder. If you add Pattern finder as a CML Pro subscriber, it’s $28.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:03:10):
$28. That’s not going to be forever. It’s only going to be for people that are members now, but it’s okay. But CM
Amanda Kelley (02:03:15):
Pro members in
Ophir Gottlieb (02:03:16):
August won’t have that yet.
Amanda Kelley (02:03:18):
Exactly. Basically same question as a CML Pro member, how do I get a discount for pattern finder trade machine
Ophir Gottlieb (02:03:27):
Below up support,
Amanda Kelley (02:03:29):
Below up support, which is absolutely fine. It keeps me busy, it keeps me out of trouble.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:03:35):
I definitely want to keep Indiana out of trouble.
Amanda Kelley (02:03:41):
Do you have prefilled screening values or do we input them all?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:03:46):
It is prefilled, but I think that’s just random. So let me clear the technical.
Amanda Kelley (02:04:05):
I’m not sure if this user’s referring to trade machine or pattern finder because we also have prefilled screening values and pattern finders.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:04:13):
Oh, so for both? Not really. If you do kurtosis one year, it’s going to say three, but you don’t have to use that. So I would not use return Asymmetries is a fancy way of saying skew. What’s funny is we didn’t want to confuse people by saying skew. And I think we’ve now confused people more by saying skew. Anyway, that’s a very big number. Above one or two is big. So Kurtosis has much more, by the way, if you want to get a feeling for just the dynamics of skew you want to do, that was stupid, what you want to do in Pattern Finder, why do I keep doing that? That’s the real question is why do I don’t want to do that? Okay, you want to? Oh my God. Okay. Okay. So a really good way for pattern finder. Remember, I think this is a great way to do it. Create a new screen and just say you’re looking for ketosis. I’m looking for ketosis. Okay. One year ketosis, and just do this. Alright, how many companies have a ketosis over zero? Okay, IT 4,617. Okay, how many have a ketosis over one? Okay, 27. 20. Okay. How many have ketosis over three?
(02:05:40):
Okay, how many have ketosis over? So this is one of the best ways to use Pattern Finder, which isn’t really a way, it’s just very, very clever way to use technology et. And you’re like, okay, well how about that? Also have it for six months. Oh, okay. So that’s how you do it. And then if you want to know how many companies are there total? Just click All values, all values. So there’s 7,700 companies that we’re covering that have proptosis. So when you then say, okay, well of those 7,700, how many have it over three and it’s 2000? Well, two sevens. So 29%.
(02:06:24):
That’s a really good way to start getting a feel for dynamics. And if you do that with sku, by the way, it’s going to be totally different. So okay, all the companies that have one year sku, how many, right? 7,000. I knew that. Sorry. 77, 33. All right. How many have it over three, 400 as opposed to 2000. So that’s a really good way to see the dynamics, always use technology. Your benefit might not have been a planned thing, but there’s a really good way that you can start sorting and figuring things out. I highly encourage you to try that.
Amanda Kelley (02:07:03):
Will there be a video to show how to use in Pattern Fader and in Trade Machine Pro?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:07:10):
I think this video is it, right? So in Trade machine, it was the dropdown menu in technical opens here it’s under proprietary statistics. You don’t have to remember that. You can just say, Hey, we’re a sku, and you’re like, oh yeah, this one, and it’ll just take you. Here it is. And when you find the skew here’s the ptosis. So just start putting them in and then already in every close the editor in every screen that already exists. Trade pattern finder. We’ve already just added all four so you don’t have to look just for ease of use. This was honestly this. We could say it’s for you, it’s for me too as a pattern finder member. I was like, can we just put it in? I wonder what this chart looks like.
Amanda Kelley (02:08:02):
I’m going to keep going. While you look at that, I hear discussion about trade machine and Trade Machine Pro. Are there different levels of service? Do you want to explain?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:08:10):
Yeah, it’s an unfortunate naming convention and it’s the same product. Having said that right now, trade Machine and trade machine Pro are the same thing. It’s just different where the same, it’s like lowercase L and uppercase LI dunno, it’s the same thing. Having said that since you asked, we are going to call Trade Machine Pro the version that has skew and kurtosis, so as of July 3rd, there actually will be a difference. Trade Machine Pro will be the version I just showed you and Trade Machine will be the one without Kurtosis and sku. So we did talk about,
Amanda Kelley (02:08:47):
I was going to throw in there, we also have the annual version,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:08:50):
Right? Trade machine Platinum is Trade Machine Pro, but you pay for a year upfront, but because of that you get this ability to back test 500 symbols at once as opposed to 50. So you can do these massive, massive back tests.
Amanda Kelley (02:09:05):
Exactly. If you need further clarification, email support,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:09:08):
I think like 10% of our members are platinum members. I don’t know exactly, but Platinum’s pretty popular. I mean as a product goes
Amanda Kelley (02:09:19):
Well, and I’ll just say I’ve already got some emails asking for more. So
Ophir Gottlieb (02:09:24):
Yeah, just remember for platinum members, we have to upgrade our infrastructure a little bit, which is a few weeks away and then we’re going to give you the 500 because you guys are going to bring the whole system down, which God bless you, but it’s on us then to make sure that you can do what you want, but don’t bring the system down. So this has been planned for months and we’ve been working on it. We have a solution, it’ll be up. We have to make sure we don’t, it doesn’t do us any good to improve the speed, but we’re giving you errors right At this point, trade machine’s been around for eight years, no more errors. We don’t need errors, so just wait a couple weeks and it’ll be way, way faster. I mean blazingly faster, 50 x faster and that’s when we’ll let you do the 500 symbol. Until then, it’s not worth it. Yeah, just
Amanda Kelley (02:10:10):
I think right now it is still restricted to 100
Ophir Gottlieb (02:10:13):
Check. Yes, you could still to 100, so it’s still worth it. Platinum’s a popular product, even just a hundred, but it’s about to become way more popular. I have a feeling, but we need to just upgrade the infrastructure.
Amanda Kelley (02:10:22):
Yeah, will
Ophir Gottlieb (02:10:25):
It’s for everyone’s benefit, by the way.
Amanda Kelley (02:10:27):
Exactly. Will the AI work for pre earnings trades of seven and days?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:10:35):
Maybe the shorter the period, the less likely it’ll matter, but let’s give it a shot. I don’t know actually. I might seem like it. I take a great, great pride and you guys thinking I know all these things. Actually don’t give it a shot. Yeah, you can keep going though. I’m just going to try something.
(02:11:07):
Okay, so here’s how you would do it. Okay? You would load a ticker, don’t load one ticker, you’d load a portfolio. Oh yeah. Everyone in trade machine is going to soon have this portfolio. It’s the s and p 500 from 2018. That’s the portfolio. I used to do the back test and I promised everyone you could verify my work. So I would take that, here’s the whatever, the seven day trade, just let it run all 500 symbols, blah, blah, blah. It’s going to take 10 minutes, save it, whatever. Then go to the technicals and add, for example, I don’t know, let’s say kurtosis one year is greater than three, whatever, and then compare it. That’s how you would do it. And if you have platinum, you can really knock yourselves out. But if you don’t have platinum, you can still do 50 tickers at a time. I mean trade machine is one of my favorite products ever. It just happens to be a product that we made. I really, really like this product. I’m a power user of trade machine. I don’t know where I would be with that. I don’t know where I would be without our free site even, but of course it is. I made it so it would fit me. So obviously it’s like if you could cook the perfect food then you’d be like, it’s amazing. I like this food. But no, you made something exactly for your taste.
Amanda Kelley (02:12:26):
Alright, we don’t
Ophir Gottlieb (02:12:27):
Have to.
Amanda Kelley (02:12:29):
I’m going to keep going while you’re loading that. This is why we’re doing the upgrades though.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:12:35):
It
Amanda Kelley (02:12:35):
Doesn’t take this long. This is a great example.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:12:38):
Imagine instead of taking five minutes, it took 10 seconds. That’s kind of what we’re looking at.
Amanda Kelley (02:12:44):
Are there any preferred strategies and trade machine that could be used for bullish options, trades that we learned with what we learned today?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:12:51):
Yeah, I would say well fade. The dip is a bullish strategy or at the very least it’s a not bearish strategy. So fade the dip right away, 14 day pre earnings right away. Bollinger by the dip, which is here. So we’ll go to the scanner. Those three really pass the sniff test for me at least. Bollinger buy the dip, not buy the dip. I don’t like buy the dip myself. It’s just a naked call. It’s just not my thing. It doesn’t mean it doesn’t work. It’s just not my thing. So Bollinger, you buy dip, buy the sell off would be super interesting. This is a strategy where RSI dips below 25. That would be crazy interesting to see if a company with R RSS I below 25 has a strong upside kurtosis that tail kurtosis, that could be really, that has now interested me. That’s something I want to try. That’s something I’m going to try over the weekend. That really interests me now I want to try buy and sell it. That makes a lot of sense. It would be us think about a stock that’s oversold that also has a tendency to outperform on the tail. That would be a super interesting call to buy. That would be an interesting speculation. Should have done that for the world.
(02:14:13):
That’s a great idea.
Amanda Kelley (02:14:18):
If I currently have Trade Machine Pro, will my price increase or do I pay extra to get the upgrade?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:14:24):
You’re going to get everything. Yep. What you just got was a cool webinar on what you’re going to get and it’s not going to cost me again
Amanda Kelley (02:14:32):
This higher skew give fewer results.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:14:35):
Yeah, for sure. Yeah. Anytime you put a filter on something, you’re going to get fewer results, right? Any filter of any sort because only so many companies will satisfy that filter. You’ll definitely get fewer results.
Amanda Kelley (02:14:53):
Sorry, I’m also typing an answer. Thank you. Of fear, very informative and clear. Great value. Probably need to raise your prices even higher than what you’re thinking today.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:15:04):
Someone gets, we have people who are like, why are you selling this for less than 80,000 a year? It’s like, that’s not who I’m selling to right now.
Amanda Kelley (02:15:13):
Exactly. I thought there was an email for trade machine subscribers to get pattern finder for $11. Is this correct and still true? Yes, it is email support. What’s the difference between the two kurtosis measures of tail fatness or something else?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:15:34):
Okay, so there’s four measures. There’s this ketosis over one year and the ketosis over six months. It’s the same computation but we’re just taking a year of history and a six months of history. Then there’s skew and ketosis. Skew is just the general asymmetry of the distribution in general and ketosis is very much focused on the fatness of the tails, but skew also has over the last six months and over the last year, I tend to ketosis over a year, but that’s just a very, very personal thing. So in truth, I didn’t even test ketosis six months that much. I could be missing everything I don’t think I am. But from my 25 years doing this one year tail behavior seems to be far more predictive of repeating than six month tail behavior because six month tail behavior could be an event which there’s no reason to believe it would repeat. It would be like a big jump in a martingale or a Brownian motion, but the expectation of the next value of the Brownian increment is zero.
Amanda Kelley (02:16:41):
Alright. Where in trade machine pro are skew kurtosis located?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:16:47):
Not yet, but this is where they will be. Oh, so it’s not there yet. It’ll be there hopefully tomorrow, definitely by Monday. But you will do it. Is this you guys? Are you guys really? Okay.
Amanda Kelley (02:17:10):
Okay. It is them. Just so you know,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:17:13):
It would be here. This is in a development version. These be these last four things. Oh, and it would be under, sorry. It would be under technical open actually. Interestingly, it would be under technical open. It’d probably be under technical close too. Is that true? Yeah, hypothetically it’s under technical close too. You could have a strategy and close it when the skewer ketosis does something weird. That’s super clever too. I didn’t even think about that. But it would be under technical open and technical close. Hold on, I’ll try by not me. Jason and Alex will try by tomorrow morning. If not Monday morning. It’s coming.
Amanda Kelley (02:17:51):
Okay. Do you have suggested ketosis filter values? I assume the higher the values the better the probability?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:17:58):
Well it depends because if you get into too much of tail of tails, then you start to get noise. I believe Bollinger by the DIP is better with it. I don’t think it’s like 53% better. I don’t really believe those numbers. If you don’t remember what I’m saying, I’ll show you it’s worth Did I? It was by, yeah. Okay. So far this is Bollinger by the DIP and this is using kurtosis and I believe these numbers this good. This is 13% versus negative 2%. When I went to half a year, it happened so infrequently. I’m not going to start saying after 12 trades at the average return is actually 53% versus negative 27%. I don’t think it’s that big. So if you start using really, really big numbers for skew and ptosis, you could actually be getting noise. So you got to be careful. Statistical significance matters.
(02:18:46):
My general testing, you can see you’ll get this webinar, it was just greater than one or greater than three and for skew it was like greater than zero, greater than one or greater than two. I didn’t try a lot. I’m not interested in overfitting and things like that. So I’m wondering where the number three comes from. The ketosis of the normal distribution is three and the ketosis I’m giving you, even though it’s quite different than what people think of ketosis, it is also standardized to the normal. So a kurtosis of three would be the equivalent of a distribution with a ketosis of six. So twice the normal distribution. If you’re wondering why I chose the number three, it’s twice as fat as the normal distribution. I don’t know if that’s a good reason, but I’m a mathematician so I think like that. I dunno, doesn’t mean it’s good.
Amanda Kelley (02:19:40):
Is there a discounted price for existing pattern finder members for trade machine? No, but you get a discount on pattern finder.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:19:49):
Yeah, right. So if you’re paying 38 for pattern finder and you get trade machine, your pattern finder is going to go down to 11. So that’s your discount for trade machine. But no trade machine is just not a discounted product.
Amanda Kelley (02:20:03):
Right. Are trade machine and pattern finder included in both in the same subscription? No.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:20:10):
No, but you can add pattern finder to trade machine for 11. I do feel like we should have a one big monster app, but it’s later.
Amanda Kelley (02:20:23):
What has been your experience with number of trades that come up with kurtosis and skew conditions? You show the number of trades is reduced quite a bit. So I’m curious how many FTD spade, the dips and 14 day pre earnings trades fit the criteria in a given month?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:20:39):
Probably not a lot. You can look at the percentage, right? Maybe I’ll send these slides out. It’s quite a reduction, so that’s about 60% fewer trades. That’s same. So if there’s 10 a month, then there’ll be four a month, whatever I’m just making. So it’s fewer. The idea is to find first, find a successful strategy, then find the better trades in that successful strategy. That’s why I started showing short put spread. It’s just a bad strategy in and of itself blindly. So you can use security kurtosis to increase the win rate, but it’s still a bad strategy. So the value of trade machine is that we’ve already found the good strategies. Now you want to improve upon ’em and I’m okay with taking fewer trades. Also, if you’re following three or four or five of your own strategies and trade machine or just certain strategies that we have in there in the scanner, you should be trading a lot. When I was busy in trade machine, I was trading a lot. I could easily have 15 or 20 open trades easily. It’s been a while since the good old days guys, I could trade that much.
Amanda Kelley (02:22:07):
If we are trade machine members already, will we receive the upgrade automatically?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:22:11):
You will.
Amanda Kelley (02:22:15):
How is it that skew and kurtosis aren’t built into options Premiums?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:22:20):
Yes. Isn’t that funny? Skew and kurtosis are built at options premiums. The way we look at skew and ketosis is not, and that’s why I said that we found an aspiration.
(02:22:48):
That’s why I said it’s a departure from what is normal, usual or keyword expected. Expected means priced. It’s a fancy way of saying a departure from what is priced. Has this ever happened before? I’ve done it once before. Did it make money? It did and then Morgan Stanley Capital Investment bought it and now it’s gone. And that sucks because I was not the CEO of that company. So yes, and if you don’t believe it, that’s okay because on my magical information slide, if you go here you can see that it’s true when I present in the UK at CFA Institute on the main stage, you can prove it to yourself or you can just go to SSRM, the research network and just get the paper. I can’t, can’t imagine they’re charging for the paper anymore. Would be ridiculous. I’ll send it to you.
Amanda Kelley (02:23:40):
Can we also use the tools on volatility such as vix?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:23:45):
I think you can, right?
Amanda Kelley (02:23:47):
Yeah, we can back text vix.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:23:50):
Yeah, sure.
Amanda Kelley (02:23:57):
Are your favorite screens adding kurtosis and skew built into pattern finder now? If so, can you name them so we don’t need to recreate the wheel
Ophir Gottlieb (02:24:06):
So they’re not per se, they’re in the results so you can sort by them. So I want a control tab. How many windows do I have built right now?
Amanda Kelley (02:24:20):
Too many.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:24:22):
Okay, so the screens are the same, it’s just that the fields are in there. I haven’t changed anything. I actually like the screens in pattern finder. I’m just going to start. This is the bullish three years and I’m like, yeah, okay, lemme just sort by the one year kurtosis. Okay, that’s good and I want to make sure that we’re looking at some good SKU and that left me with two companies and I just picked the company with the best and that was the company I decided to show you the chart of. So it’s embedded. You don’t have to recreate anything. I don’t want to. I’m just going to start looking at SKU and kurtosis all the time. That’s just something I’m going to do. This looks like a gap fill anyway, even without skewing ketosis. Pattern finder was showing you this chart. The fact that the skewing kurtosis are on your side, it doesn’t mean this is going to win. Do you remember what I said at the end of the webinar? It’s the long arc. Imagine that your win rate is 10% higher. Imagine over the long run, your average, your average return is twice as high. It’s not tomorrow. It’s not the day after tomorrow. It is a career. It’s over career. You’re building this edge and it should pay off that tomorrow. TDC is going to be down 90% because I talked about this stuff for sure. Murphy’s Law,
Amanda Kelley (02:25:44):
The are the features going to be included for standard TM members? Yes, you are signed up today. You get everything.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:25:55):
If you’re a member today, you get everything. If you’re not a member on July 4th, you’re going to pay a lot more or you’re not going to get it. I mean you don’t have to get, it’s your life, you do what you want, but if you have time to sign up or if you’re currently signed up, you’re safe.
Amanda Kelley (02:26:10):
Yes.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:26:11):
Now would be a particularly good time to try. Even if it’s just for a month. That’s all I’m going to tell you because I think in not the too distance future, the demand’s going to be very high and we’re just not going to satisfy the demand. We’re just going to be there. We’re done. That’s a guess.
Amanda Kelley (02:26:29):
Can you do a webinar or article on pair trading sometime in the future?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:26:33):
Yeah, that’s fun. I would love to do that. Pair trading would be a cool webinar. Yeah, I could do with stock.
Amanda Kelley (02:26:41):
Add it to your list of To-dos Sophia.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:26:44):
Exactly. My copious free time.
Amanda Kelley (02:26:46):
Yep. Pattern finder and trade machine are wonderful tools. Unfortunately I’ve not been able to utilize them fully because of the training materials. Will more expansive training materials be available at some point?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:27:00):
Yeah, I mean ask Mandy or tell Mandy what you think we’re missing and she’ll tell us and we’ll do our best or she’ll do it.
Amanda Kelley (02:27:09):
Yes, send, if you have ideas for help articles, please send them my way and we will work on those.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:27:21):
I mean ultimately we built it, so if you’re paying for it, we want you to get every ounce of value out of it. If that’s partially on us, then help us help you in certain sense.
Amanda Kelley (02:27:36):
Thanks. I’ve been a platinum member and yes, I want to be a trader. Thanks Sophia.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:27:40):
That’s right.
Amanda Kelley (02:27:41):
Just a statement.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:27:42):
My man or my woman, man or woman. Someone’s after my heart. That’s exactly right. I want to be a trader. I just what I heard wherever you are, if you find me, come tap me on the shoulder. That’s what I’m talking about.
Amanda Kelley (02:27:58):
I noticed that if I do a three-year chart, I can see a p and l button for the same stock with the 18 month chart. It does not show the p and l. That is correct.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:28:08):
It is. I think that’s because it might be because the congestion lines are gone. So 18 months will show p and l. It’s just So this is through,
Amanda Kelley (02:28:18):
It’s below 18. Anything below 18 months will not show p and l congestion or basically any of the patterns or trendlines
Ophir Gottlieb (02:28:29):
At this time. Well definitely it’ll show trendlines. It might not show p and l zones, but hold on. I don’t know if that’s, hold on. I think it’s because with TDC, it’s through. Okay, so lemme just find this up. I’m not sure which stock they’re looking at, but
Amanda Kelley (02:28:46):
I think they’re referring to anything below 18 months.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:28:49):
Oh, below? Yes, below 18 months. Yes, correct. For TDC, the reason you’re not seeing p and ls on is because it’s through trend resistance. This will eventually get redrawn. Just the stock has to kind of prove it to trade machines. I mean not trade machine, it’s on its own. The algorithm lives and breathes on its own. So at some point it’ll be like, oh, that’s where resistance is. But on our normal stock you should see at 18 months you should still see that, see stuff also, everything’s kind of up right now. What’s not that up? Right now Exxon works,
Amanda Kelley (02:29:24):
But on the lower charts you do have the option to draw your own trend lines. Yes. So that’s always an and that’s an option on all of the charts. You can draw your own.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:29:34):
Yeah, I do that a lot for, oh, on nine months. Oh, we have, oh, so it’s three months in less. No, so they were talking about TDC. So TDC is through congestion. The Mandy’s right on three months, five days in one day you won’t see it. But the reason you weren’t seeing it on stock TDC, the one that I was talking about is because as of right now, pattern finder is saying, well, it’s through the last congestion and the trend resistance and not it’ll decide, but at some point it’s going to decide. Probably not. Don’t move you. It’s going to decide that resistance is going to do this, but it has to be convinced there’s an algorithm, which hypothetically I know, but I could not rattle off the top of my head. So until it’s convinced it’s going to say so that’s why in the pattern finder demo video, I talk about using multiple time periods. So start with a long time period, then go closer and closer and closer.
Amanda Kelley (02:30:33):
And worth noting here, it seems like a good place to put it in with pattern finder on the p and l zones. If it doesn’t identify an upside downside or both? Well specifically both. It’s not going to show a p and l zone because it has to have both upside and downside for us to show
Ophir Gottlieb (02:30:51):
That. That’s right. Yeah. She knows it better than I do. What she said
Amanda Kelley (02:31:00):
Cart loading could be faster. Would death be a favor investing process capacity on the backend. That’s why we’re working on it.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:31:08):
Actually, what’s interesting is we’re going to reduce the size of the footprint of our backend about like 50% and still give you a 50 x Jason. We have a very, very, very, very special CTO, so it’s just not normal what he does. So he just had a fucking good, it’s such idea. I don’t want to tell other people. It’s like I don’t want to share it. Just a really good idea with accessing data. Yeah, it’s just much smarter later. I’ll take credit for it, but until he does it, I have to let him picker
Amanda Kelley (02:31:43):
Options trader for 20 years, but need reeducation. Might you provide a referral to high integrity options educator?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:31:53):
I’m going to do my best. I think from the last time I checked, Dan Passarelli was pretty good. I think in community. People liked him. I know Dan, but I haven’t, haven’t followed his career. I don’t think he’s followed my career, but Dan Passarelli used to have a really good, I think it was a good series actually. So that’s someone that I at least at one point relief felt. He was actually, I think Dan was a client of a firm I used to work for. I was a managing director of a firm called Val. I might be confusing it with someone else, but that’s how I started to know him. I had the red phone and the black phone. He had the red phone number. So I think Dan,
Amanda Kelley (02:32:42):
We also, if you’re a trade machine pro subscriber, we do have an options education series that Jason
Ophir Gottlieb (02:32:48):
Has shared. Oh yeah. I’m so stupid. Jason did it. I’m so dumb.
Amanda Kelley (02:32:51):
Thank you. I got your backup here.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:32:53):
Yeah, big time. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we did.
Amanda Kelley (02:32:58):
So there’s a four-part series. Parts two through four are exclusive to Trade Machine pro subscribers. But if you are a Trade Machine Pro subscriber, email me and I will get you the links.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:33:10):
Yeah, I think if you go to learn, oh, so it’s not in here,
Amanda Kelley (02:33:16):
They can access part one from there. Okay. Parts two through four. They do have to email, but there are details about them there if you want to look before you go.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:33:28):
Yeah, so there’s option options 1 0 1, we have options at beginner and then after you do this video, Mandy saying, okay, I’m going to go off this page now. Yeah. Yep. So yes, we have options. Location. I forgot. Sorry Jay,
Amanda Kelley (02:33:43):
That’s why I’m here. But
Ophir Gottlieb (02:33:47):
Dan’s good too, but ours is free.
Amanda Kelley (02:33:50):
Ours is free if you’re a subscriber to trade,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:33:53):
We’re a subscriber Fair.
Amanda Kelley (02:33:56):
Does Trade Machine Pro include Pattern Finder? No, it does not.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:34:00):
For $11 a month. You can get it then.
Amanda Kelley (02:34:02):
Exactly. Email support. I sound like a broken record now. Futures or futures options, please
Ophir Gottlieb (02:34:14):
Not yet.
Amanda Kelley (02:34:14):
Just saying that out loud er. Yep. How much is Platinum upgrade price for Trade Machine Pro members?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:34:26):
No, prices increase. You just have to pay a year in advance and there’s no refund, so you can’t cancel off to three months to say I want nine months back. It doesn’t work like that, but the price does not actually go up. You’re just prepay. The reason we’re doing that is because we’re reserving basically infrastructure because nobody signs up for Trade Machine Platinum and doesn’t crush the system.
Amanda Kelley (02:34:43):
Exactly. Email support. We’ll get you more details. I had appreciate if you could clarify whether these upgrades will be available to current TM members, not platinum. Yes, they will. What does CML PRO add to the overall value of what we talked about tonight? That’s a great question.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:35:24):
CML PRO is a stock research platform. Economic research too. We have a list of top picks, I don’t know, 15, 20 companies, whatever, and we just dive very deeply into them. We have a pretty rich expert network. I talk to the CEOs of probably half of them and then give you a transcription and so you get to really know companies well and it’s tech focused, it’s growth focused, it’s volatile, but they’re real companies. I mean know and there’s some mega caps in there. We actually have two mega caps in there. So CMOP. So you can Google CML Pro and you’ll find it. We’re not doing, we’re not going to start saying, Hey, you better get CML Pro or the price is going to go up yet because we’re not ready with the ai. So it’s not trying to create a false sense of urgency with trade machine and pattern funder. This is not a false sense of urgency. I’m letting you know if you want this data and you’re not a current member, you have a limited time to get it for this price and otherwise we’re just not going back.
Amanda Kelley (02:36:31):
I think the question more is how would CML PRO relate to what we covered this evening?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:36:36):
Oh, I would say some of the stuff I showed you with Skew and Kurtosis is going to be in CML Pro through the GPT tool, but that’s kind of it. CML PRO is going to get its own ai, but that’s about it.
Amanda Kelley (02:36:54):
Okay. Does Trade Machine have strategies available for ETFs or just individual stocks? Yes.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:37:00):
Yeah, it has ETFs, so they’re not working right now for some reason.
Amanda Kelley (02:37:07):
I think they broke it here.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:37:09):
Yeah, we had two ETF strategies which are not loading right now. So hypothetically we have a, oh, this might not be production. Hopefully it’s just because I’m not in production, but if this production, we do have strategies for ETFs and they’re not working right now, but it’s the one by two by one by two and a short iron condor and if you want to know what a one by two, by one by two is, then you would go to the learn tab and I think this might work. Oh, ETF technical. Look at that. And there you go. And this is open to the public, this page, so you guys can see what our ETF strategy is. Feel free even a video.
Amanda Kelley (02:37:58):
Please do a general review of differences of pattern finder and trade machine and upgrades for each.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:38:04):
Sure. So the upgrades for each are each going to get kurtosis and skew. So two time periods for ketosis, two time periods for skew. They’re both getting it. Pattern finder is not a back tester, so pattern finder is not going to get historical skew. So you can’t look at what the skew of Apple was in 2019. For example, pattern trade machine is going to have the entire history. Well, right now we have five years of history. It takes a long time to backfill, but you have five years of history and we’ll keep going. The differences are pretty stark. So trade machine is though you can back test stock, it is an option back testing platform. It’s for building strategies or using prebuilt strategies that we have. It’s for really using the past, past trade results to create a plan for the future. This idea that what has happened in the past could be meaningfully repeating in the future. Pattern finder is the same thing, but only with charts. There’s no back testing. You can see a chart and use, that’s what charting. Charting is a back test too. You’re saying what happened in the past I think is going to impact the future, but one is very options focused allows for freewheeling. You’re kind of like, I’m going to create this custom strategy and see if it works. Whereas Pattern Finder is really chart focused. It’s the difference. One is for stocks, one is for options. One is a back tester, one is not.
Amanda Kelley (02:39:35):
Are the new scans going to include the new tools? So I think they’re referring to screens and pattern finder and
Ophir Gottlieb (02:39:50):
So the new Go ahead.
Amanda Kelley (02:39:53):
I was just going to say, the way I’m reading it, it sounds like maybe the screener, Prete prebuilt screens.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:40:00):
Oh, so every prebuilt screen is going to list. Oh well there’s one here is going to list these four the, you don’t have to look it up. It’ll be here for you. You can also look it for any company. Now underneath the financial stats thing, if you want to create screens and pattern finder just for skew and ptosis, you can click new screen. You can say search skew, right? Great. Go to a one year. I only want companies which have a one year S skew that is greater than two A six month S skew greater than one. See, we’re getting down to very few companies as maybe a large tail of tails. How interesting.
(02:40:45):
Wow. I would not have expected that. Maybe this too. No, that’s not working. Okay. Pattern Pine isn’t working exactly right. I can tell right now. So we’ll get that by Monday. But yes, you could create a screen for yourself that is only with good return distribution characteristics. You could also do negatives. So you could have the bearish ones and you could every day you could start looking at that. I’m going to, I basically abuse our products. I use every feature of our products, but that’s why they’re in the products. I was like, we should do that.
Amanda Kelley (02:41:27):
Alright. Should subscribers have both Trade machine and pattern finder? How do they compliment each other?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:41:33):
I would say if you’re a trade machine member, because you’re an options back tester, I think you should have Pattern Fighter for $11 a month. I think it’s a, I think if you’re only a stock trader, I don’t think it’s a no-brainer to get trade machine. No. If you’re a stock trader and you’re just not into options yet and you don’t have the time, don’t force it. I would say until you’re ready. So as is, as an options trader, you’re obviously also a stock trader. So I think it’s a no brainer. It doesn’t make sense to me to be a trade Machine member and not pay $11. It makes a lot of sense for me. If you’re a pattern finder member not to get trade machine, if you’re not into Options, man, don’t force it on yourself. You know what I mean? Just don’t spend money just to spend the money. I want you guys to make money. It’s like, don’t get me wrong, I benefit if you’re a subscriber, but it’s not. I don’t want you to just blow your money. So yeah, so that’s my answer. Pattern finder members, trade machine members, I feel like you should be better. Vice versa. Not necessarily.
Amanda Kelley (02:42:39):
Okay. If there is no tail and skew analysis for a stock, assume it’s because it doesn’t apply or is it less than one?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:42:48):
No, no, no. It’s because we can’t compute it for some reason. It’s not less than a number. No, no. Yes. Some stocks are not going to have it and it could be fact FactSet data, which is our stock data, something like that. We’re maybe finding something in computation. It’s spinning out a number, but we’re like, that number doesn’t feel right. So it is like a data error. So just consider, don’t consider it to be one thing or the other, just we can’t compute it for some reason. And that reason is data. There’s something not right with the data can always kind of verify that, right? Because if you go to the GPT tool now, which is there, you can always say compare. So I just want to repeat that. If you want to learn how to use this, click a button first. Like earnings estimates for Apple. How would I ask that? Okay, that’s how I would ask it. Let me finish doing its thing. Oh, it’s not us. I promise you it’s not us. I would say damn open ai, but we can’t, I mean they created something beautiful so we just have to kind of, okay, so that’s actually not how it should. That’s not right either. Alright anyway, click a button and then mimic it, right? So if you’re like, how did he do that sentiment thing? Click get stock sentiment, it’ll get the sentiment for stock, let it do it, then change the ticker. I recommend that you can do free flowing text. It’s okay. You’ll just be frustrated. Okay.
(02:44:32):
Sentiment
Amanda Kelley (02:44:33):
For example, oh, go ahead. I was just going to add up here that with the new updates with it being inside a pattern finder with it being inside of Trade Machine, you are not going to be restricted like you are currently on the free site. Yeah,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:44:46):
The free sites. We’re going to take out skewed ketosis anyway from the free site obviously, but also you just knock yourself out here. Yeah, so this is a cool one. You can see the sentiment. I won’t read it to you, but you can read and then you can see some of the things that we’ve layered on top of it with our own ml, like Stack Moving Averages and RS and volume. So that’s pretty cool and we’ll adjust the sentiment and then you’re a click away from doing something. I was like, oh well let’s compare Nvidia to the market and then it’s going to give you the skew and kurtosis. So I think this is going to become one of your favorite pages, but I dunno, maybe not. I just hope you get great value from what we provide. I guess. I don’t care which page you use. That’s my object of desire.
Amanda Kelley (02:45:32):
We have answered part of this question, but I’m going to read the rest of it too. Our trade machine and Pattern finder, separate subscriptions and if a current trade machine subscriber now adds Pattern finder but later drops it, may they simply continue their trade machine subscription.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:45:49):
Absolutely. Yeah. They’re different products. If you’re a trade machine member, you add Pattern finders for $11. You can drop your pattern finder whenever you like. You don’t lose your trade machine, they’re separate.
Amanda Kelley (02:46:02):
I already have Pattern Finder. What’s the price for Trade Machine? I believe promotional price Trade machine is $89 right now. I think that’s right through the weekend. But you will get a discount on your pattern finder if you subscribe. All you have to do is email support,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:46:19):
Right? I mean remember in reverse you get a discount for your pattern finder. Yeah,
Amanda Kelley (02:46:25):
I know it’s a little confusing, but you still save money.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:46:29):
You do. That’s net Net.
Amanda Kelley (02:46:33):
Can we do a custom AV WAP in Pattern Finder maybe from all time high, low or from a high volume, et cetera?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:46:42):
I don’t think you can choose the anchors in our AV Wap yet,
Amanda Kelley (02:46:46):
Correct? You cannot. It’s automatically anchored to the front of the chart. So whatever period your chart is, it’s anchored to the front.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:46:56):
Okay, there you go. Hold you.
Amanda Kelley (02:47:02):
Will the Today screen still be available on Trade Machine with the updated versions of Skew and ketosis?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:47:10):
So right now they’re not changing. I can foresee by before the end of the year having both. So having that strategy and having the ketosis and skew version, because we have that already on the today tab actually for some other strategies. So for example, I think it’s the 14, it’s one of them. We have two versions. I think it’s 14. Okay. Yeah, it’s a 14 days long call and the 14 days diagonal. So it’ll be something like that, right? It’ll be like Bollinger by the Dip. Bollinger by the Dip with Kurtosis and Skew. Right? 14 day preening diagonal 14 day period. Annal with Kurtosis and Skew, but not yet just the data’s available. Back test it, set your alerts. We have to work on other stuff.
Amanda Kelley (02:48:00):
Okay. Is the sentiment AI available now?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:48:04):
Yes. Immediately. Immediately available. Yes. So you go to ask GPT. You can do a trade machine too, you guys. Everyone has it. And you can ask sentiment. You can click the button, which is like get stock sentiment. I’ll just help you out. What is the sentiment for Amazon? Remember if this is ever slow, it’s not us. It’s chat pt. We can’t do anything about it. It’s not about adding more servers. They choke on their API sometimes and good for them. It’s great. It makes the user experience not so enjoyable, but I just can’t do anything about it. It’s legitimately out of our control. They pay something like $700,000 a day for infrastructure. Anyway.
Amanda Kelley (02:49:00):
Well that’s loading. I’m going to continue. Yeah. Can you explain how Trade Machine Pattern Finder and CML Trade Machine Pro subscriptions and platinum are interrelated? Does Pro include both Pattern finder and Trade Finder? I think we’ve answered that, but if you want to run through it one more time maybe.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:49:19):
Yeah, I’ll say that there’s three products. So there’s Trade Machine, which is the same thing as Trade Machine Pro right now. It just
Amanda Kelley (02:49:30):
For a couple more days.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:49:31):
For a couple more days. Okay. Trade. Oh, oh my god. Trade machine Platinum is trade machine, but with more back tests, more back testability at once, more back tests at once. That’s it. Okay. Pattern finder is four. Sorry.
Amanda Kelley (02:50:22):
Okay. If you have more questions about what products we offer,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:50:28):
Yeah, just ask. Yeah, exactly.
Amanda Kelley (02:50:30):
We also have a website that you can go to. I think it’s the same as the team website.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:50:37):
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, that’s right.
Amanda Kelley (02:50:38):
It does have it there, but of course just email us. We’re happy to help however we can.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:50:46):
That’s sure. We got to change the site too. That’s funny.
Amanda Kelley (02:50:49):
Yeah,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:50:51):
You can go to products.
Amanda Kelley (02:50:53):
Exactly.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:50:56):
Trade. Yeah, go ahead. That’s
Amanda Kelley (02:50:58):
Right. I’m going to continue. So you need to buy the same quantity and same stock each day for a year to match the results. Would need a lot of bucks for this. No.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:51:09):
Sort of. I mean it’s probably 200 trades a year. I mean you could put a hundred bucks in each stock and they’re not all at the same time. It is definitely not a strategy if you have a hundred dollars, but it doesn’t have to be a boku. But also the point of that slide wasn’t so much, I mean it’s fine, it’s a great strategy, but it’s relatively simplistic. I think there’s far better ways to implement it. I was just showing that even with a trivial stock strategy, the results were really not trivial. Double the average return. So that’s a big number. That’s not a big number. That’s a huge number.
Amanda Kelley (02:51:55):
Do you use one or two years as your back test? I worry about strong market changes in patterns over five years. Skewing the result.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:52:02):
Well, that’s why I want to show the results. I do five years, three and a half year. So I like to see all of it.
Amanda Kelley (02:52:11):
The s and p 500 skew and ketosis back test. Once the conditions trigger, the holding horizon is one year, not just exiting next year, six 18 for example,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:52:21):
Right? It’s 251 trading days, 252 Trading days is a year. And you could put 2 52 days. It’s not a magic. I just chose 2 51. How people in the industry measure a year, 251 trading days.
Amanda Kelley (02:52:39):
I have Pattern Finder Trade Machine and CML Pro. Can I get them under one login? You can use the same login information for all products, but no, they’re all on separate sites.
Ophir Gottlieb (02:52:49):
Yeah, it wasn’t our finest moment, but it’s okay. It wasn’t our finest moment and it was my fault. Oh, we have six more minutes.
Amanda Kelley (02:52:59):
Okay. How are kurtosis and SKUs calculated? Taking the s and p 500 as a baseline and then comparing to individual stock?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:53:08):
Not exactly, and I’m not going to tell you it’s a bit more complicated. Complicated is not a very descriptive word. It’s a bit more involved than that. So there is some secret sauce into I was done. It is truly ketosis and skew. There’s no doubt about that. But I can’t be fully transparent because
Amanda Kelley (02:53:42):
Could a screen be put into pattern finder for options volume?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:53:47):
We on the day? No, we can’t do it.
Amanda Kelley (02:53:54):
Well, will this webinar be available to view today? So I can think about being a subscriber for Trade Machine and Pattern finder by tomorrow,
Ophir Gottlieb (02:54:03):
Not today, but it’ll be out before your decision time. Your decision time will be like July 3rd.
Amanda Kelley (02:54:11):
I look forward to using the kurtosis and SKU values. However, I’m unclear what their connection is with AI chat. G-P-T-L-L-M that was in the title of the webinar. What is their connection with AI features being added?
Ophir Gottlieb (02:54:25):
Sure. So ultimately what I was saying is this will be the last question, I think chat GPT. In order to make use of chat GPT, you need to know where it’s exceptional and where it’s not exceptional. It’s exceptional at I told you at context fine and it’s exceptional at code. The amount of code, the amount of context. So words domain expertise that had to be translated into code was far too much to reasonably done in my opinion today without basically a robot. So it was through that I made use. But first of all, we’ve exposed chat GT of course, blah, blah, blah, the chat gt, you’re talking specifically about skin ketosis. That’s how it worked for me. So what would’ve taken me, I don’t know, two years took me 24 days.
(02:55:31):
It was just profound. And then because it was so capable, I was able to create variance of the code I would not have been able to do in any kind of reasonable timeframe. It just basically was, unless I was back in my institutional days where it’s all I was doing, yeah, I could have done it in a year, maybe had it even occurred to me. But when you have that much power, things start occurring to you. You have an id, you think I’m going to do A, B, C, but then you think ABC is going to take me four days and then ABC takes you four minutes. We might have a lot more fucking ideas. So this’ll be the last answer. So it’ll be a little longer. This is how I think of it, and this will maybe answer your question.
(02:56:18):
We have natural biases in the way we think because of what we know is possible. So I’ll give you an example. Let’s say, let’s say we’re in our house in Vegas and we want to go to a place in la let’s say. So how do I do that? I can fly, I could drive, I could take an Uber, I could ride a bike, I could walk, I could jog, I could take a helicopter. I, there’s a lot of ways that we could talk about some of which are dumb. Why would you walk? That’s dumb. I’m not really a, I am a runner, but I wouldn’t want to run that far and I wouldn’t want to bike that far. But whatever it is, we have certain things that we perceive as possible. One thing that we know is not possible, and it wouldn’t even cross our minds on this decision tree of what it is, how I’m going to get from my place in Vegas to my place in Ally.
(02:57:09):
What I would do, I would never think I’m going to flap my arms and fly. It just doesn’t make sense. Humans, we don’t have the body shape, we don’t have feathers. It just doesn’t work. We can’t fly like this. So if someone’s asking me all these possibilities, I wouldn’t say that. Okay, digitally we can now fly. So what that means is not, oh, it has occurred to me that I can flat my arms and fly and then I’ll fly. No, it would never have occurred to me to flat my arms to fly to LA and it would never have occurred to me digitally either. If you take it as a metaphor, the thing that’s holding us back and that chat GPT allows what’s holding us back is our conception of what is possible and overcoming our biases that we’re not even aware that we have. I’m not even aware of the bias that I have that I can’t flap my wings and go to LA because I don’t have wings. I can’t flap my arms and fly. It just isn’t going to work. It’s dumb. It’s a dumb idea.
(02:58:12):
Imagine the world where everything was possible. So what if I could flap my arms and fly? Would you say because of Chacha, bt, would you say chat GPT didn’t do it? Well, if I’m flapping my arms and I’m flying, I guess I’m doing it. I, but it’s only possible because of chat GPT. So this was only possible. This many steps was only possible because it was so fast to iterate. If I had a plan written down that could go that quickly, then I could have coded it up in a year probably yes. But it never would’ve occurred to me to do it this way. It’s a type of bucketing that it just never would’ve occurred to me. It’s too hard.
(02:58:56):
It’s like flapping my arms. I just, of all the ways to get to la, I wouldn’t have thought of flapping weight arms. And so the only thing holding at least CML back is like who in this company has the ability to overcome the bias that we can flap our arms and get to la? When you get deeper and deeper into it, you start to fly to mix metaphors, you just start to fly. And that’s why I consider it done by Chachi P team. It just would not have occurred to me to do it this way without the ability to go, I don’t know, 50 x faster, a hundred x faster. You just don’t get there. And so that’s why I consider it being a thing of chat GBT. Now, could I have done it without it? Had I had this magical plan in a year, I probably could have, I just never would’ve gotten there. So it’s not that it’s a hundred X faster, it’s infinity faster. I just never would’ve gotten there. The amount of time for me to get there would’ve been forever. For me personally, I would’ve died and I never would’ve gotten there. And instead it was like two hard weeks, three hard weeks. But how did I do that? Well, it’s two and a half decades of domain expertise. I’m like a lot, a lot of education. So that’s true. But really it was also chat, GP gt. So that’s my best answer.
(03:00:29):
Alright, I will, I think three hours and two minutes is good enough. Thank you Mandy. Thank you everyone for the webinar. For those of you that are members, hopefully it’s not confusing anymore. You don’t have to do anything. It’s coming. If your pattern finder member, you already got it. Even though the screen isn’t quite right, that’ll be right. If you’re trade machine member, it’s coming. You don’t have to do anything. If you’re not a trade machine or pattern finder member, you have the opportunity to use either of these two links here on the page to get it for a really low price, either one or both. I’m also telling people who are not members, just so you know, the price is going to triple after we get settled and our infrastructure is settled and you don’t email support. You can do whatever you want, free gun.
(03:01:17):
But the answer answer’s going to be no, you’re not getting it for this price. That’s it. So this is a little bit of me fulfilling my object of desire. I’m the protagonist of my life and the protagonist of my movie has a particular object of desire. And that object of desire can only be fulfilled if I tell as many people as possible about something of being possible. But then I also have a board of directors and I have shareholders, and so I can’t just be the guy that does it for free. And that’s probably a good mix. So have a fabulous rest of your Thursday evening. If you’re watching this recorded, have a fabulous rest of whichever day you’re in. It’s been a pleasure to speak with you. I always consider it a privilege that you’re willing to listen to me. So thank you and be well. Bye guys.
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